IMF sees $90 oil price in 2011

Oil prices could climb to an average $90 a barrel in 2011 driven by high Asian consumption that will likely boost global demand by around 1.4 million barrels per day, a senior IMF official was reported on Tuesday as saying.

Demand is estimated at around 87.4 million bpd in 2010 and is projected to swell to nearly 88.8 million bpd in 2011, said Masoud Ahmed, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department.

Quoted by the London-based Saudi Arabic language daily Alhayat, Ahmed said oil prices have hovered between $80 and $90 a barrel recently because of stronger than expected recovery in the United States and other industrial power as well as high demand in China and other Asian consumers.

“Demand is expected to climb to 88.8 million bpd next year because of expectations of strong global growth…I think OPEC’s spare output capacity, which accounts for around six per cent of the world’s demand, is sufficient to meet the increase but it will erode in the medium term,” he said.

“As for prices, according to our medium-term projections, they will likely average around $90 a barrel during 2011-2015.”

At $90 a barrel, the average oil price will be higher than the expected average of just over $70 this year and around $60 in 2009. But it remains below the record high average of around $95 in 2008.

Ahmed said higher oil prices would ally with an expected increase in crude production to lift the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia by around 3.5 per cent this year and nearly 4.3 per cent in 2011.

His figures also showed exports by the region would also likely to rise by around 10 per cent to surpass $one trillion while the current account balance could climb to $150 billion in 2011 from $120 billion in 2010.

“According to our analysis, a one dollar rise in oil prices will add nearly $10 billion to the current account surplus of the region’s crude exporters,” he said.

“The biggest improvement will be in the Gulf Cooperation Council, where the budget surplus will average around nine per cent of GDP during 2009-2011.”
 

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