CWG 2010: Mood and Moody’s both downbeat

The 2008 Summer Olympics firmly cemented China’s global superpower status and Beijing’s rankings among the 21st century capitals. What China can do, India can do better. With that firm but – as it is turning out to be the case – misplaced belief, India bribed its way to winning the bid for hosting the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi.

But is it really bribe when the offer is public – and competitive? Apparently, India offered the 72 Commonwealth nations a collective $10mn (approx $140,000 each) for athlete training schemes, as opposed to Canada’s Hamilton city’s offer of $70,000 each. Perhaps it wasn’t bribe. Just old-fashioned inducement that won the day (and bid) for India.

But can the same thing save the day now when, less than three days before the October 3 start of the Games, corruption allegations are (still) flying thick and fast and terror threats remain high on the official agenda? Perhaps not. The athletes village, the city’s roads, the stadia and other sports infrastructure, health facilities – practically, everything – is still in a royal mess.

With India missing each and every of its self-imposed deadlines for completion of the facilities to date, the grand gamble seems to have backfired. The chinks in New India’s armours have been exposed and how.

As an Indian born and brought up in New Delhi, I – and I’m sure my numerous other compatriots abroad – feel elated every time we read about the rapid development in Indian economy, its infrastructure and about its seemingly unlimited and hugely talented human resources pool.

There is a sense of pride when we read stories about India’s recession-beating GDP growth numbers, about continuing foreign investment in the country, about Indian companies leaving their mark on the global field, about Indians storming into rich-lists, the country’s manufacturing prowess with $2500 car (Tata Nano) and $35 table PC, and the likes.

Suddenly, thanks to the utterly disorganised and bureaucratic preparations for the Games, the other side of the Indian story is getting highlighted more often now than the one we’d got used to in the past few years.

Foreign – and Indian – media is full of stories about India’s corruption, bureaucratic delays, massive cost overruns (official cost estimates of the Games have gone up from the $421mn in the original bid document to $2.2bn even as independent reports maintain the figure is at least three times that) and overbilling ($90 toilet paper rolls, anyone?).

The cacophony surrounding the Games is getting louder with the day. So much so that Moody’s Analytics, the research arm of ratings agency Moody’s Investor Service, has said that the fiasco could tarnish India’s reputation as a destination for tourists and foreign investment.

“There was a general expectation that a multi-billion dollar investment in the Commonwealth Games would spur economic activity in 2010 through infrastructure investment, tourism promotion, and a general rise in household sentiment that would buoy retail spending. Benefits were expected to continue after the closing ceremony through increased global exposure and an improved international image,” Moody’s said.

“Confidence in India’s infrastructure, its capacity to organise large events, and its reputation as a tourist destination have all been brought into question,” said Matt Robinson, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“The negative publicity could deter foreign investment and give multinational businesses considering expanding in India reason to think twice,” the Australia-based Robinson said in the emailed note.

Then, of course, the city is being plagued by a dengue epidemic even as the government is trying to keep a tight lid on the number of reported cases. Little surprise then that Queen Elizabeth II is missing the Games for the first time in her reign.

Also not coming: a number of top athletes, including Jamaican Usain Bolt (sprinter), Australian Stephanie Rice (swimming star), British Chris Hoy (cyclist), and Andy Murray (tennis star).

The going joke on the blogosphere is that, thanks to the absence of numerous heavyweights, Indian athletes might actually end up winning some medals in the Games.

But that’s not the only joke going around. Here are a few that are being actively texted around:

- Swimming coach to swimmer: Moss, be warned, the pool is leaking… The last lap could be a ‘foot race’!

- Prince Charles is actively convincing the Queen to visit Delhi for CWG. This may be his last chance to become king!

- A collapse a day keeps the athletes away (Parody of the saying ‘An Apple a day keeps the doctor away’).

- Q: How many contractors are required to change a light bulb in Delhi?

A: 1 million – One to change the bulb and 999,999 to hold the ceiling.

There are plenty more, but I guess you get the picture. It is no laughing matter either.

To make matters worse, the sensitive Ayodhya verdict by the Allahabad High Court is due today. While the government is taking steps to control any violence in the aftermath of the verdict (Uttar Pradesh, Delhi’s neighbouring state, has converted some government schools into temporary jails ahead of the verdict to deal with the expected riots), this could only make maters worse for the visiting athletes, most of whom have had to be convinced about their safety and security.

Insurers in the Lloyd’s of London market recently backed out of providing cover to ticket sellers, broadcasters or merchandise producers for cancellation or disruption of the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi citing a lack of information about infrastructure and security threats.

While it wasn’t clear at the time of writing this piece whether the organising committee had managed to rope in other/local insurers to cover the Games, as one of my colleagues said yesterday, “all they [CWG organisers] have to do now is to manoeuvre a couple of low-intensity blasts in the capital. That’ll have everyone involved agreeing to cancel or postpone the Games and will provide a massive face-saving prop to the country.”

While that may be a bit too surrealistic even by Indian standards, as Moody’s Robinson said, the debacle (delays, etc.) “before the games are to begin risks tarnishing the event and embarrassing the organisers and the country as a whole.” It’s the embarrassment after the Games begin that I’m more worried about.

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