Beating industry forecasts that Dubai's Jebel Ali, the UAE's main port in terms of container volumes handled, will see a decline in container throughput this year, a report has predicted otherwise.

Business Monitor International (BMI), the global industry research and analysis firm based in London, has predicted that Jebel Ali will witness a 6.6 per cent increase in its container volumes year-on-year and will handle 12.8 million TEUs [20-foot equivalent unit] for 2009.

BMI said the port's container volumes are forecast to increase despite the downturn in trade volumes.

"We do note, however, Jebel Ali has not been left completely unscathed by the global decline in trade as its growth in 2009 is considerably slower than its growth for 2007 and 2008, which was 25 per cent and 21.2 per cent respectively," it said.

BMI also expects full-year growth rate of container throughput at Abu Dhabi's port of Mina Zayed to rise by 14.5 per cent. "BMI expects the port's total cargo volumes to be boosted by the facility's projected container growth, and it predicts that Port Mina Zayed's total tonnage will increase by 22.3 per cent to 6.3 million tonnes in 2009," it said.

For 2010 also BMI expects an increase in volumes at Jebel Ali and Mina Zayed ports. "Growth is expected to continue in 2010, and we are predicting that container volumes at Mina Zayed will grow by eight per cent to 482,349 TEUs for the year, while total tonnage will increase by 15.1 per cent to 7.2 million tonnes. Container volume growth at the port of Jebel Ali in 2010 will improve upon its 2009 growth figure with BMI predicting that box volumes will increase by 10.3 per cent to reach 14 million TEUs," the report noted.

BMI also forecasts growth in throughput at the UAE to continue over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).

"The port of Jebel Ali's container volumes are estimated to increase by 10.9 per cent on average per year over the period. This increase in throughput will see the port handling a projected 19 million TEUs in 2013," it said.

Mina Zayed's mid-term projections display a steady growth in container throughput with BMI expecting an average yearly growth of 8.1 per cent.

"If this figure is realised the port is set to handle 609,584 TEUs by the end of our forecast window. We predict that the facility's total tonnage will grow on average by 13.6 per cent per year between 2010 and 2013 and in 2013 the port will be handling 10.6 million tonnes of cargo," it noted.

The report said the UAE's imports are not expected to increase on 2008's volume, while the country's exports are forecast to decline by 4.3 per cent y-o-y. The country's trade volumes are expected to stage a recovery in 2010, with total trade growing by a projected 6.9 per cent, it said. Over the rest of the mid term, BMI estimates that the UAE's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 7.7 per cent.

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