The dollar/euro (DEUR) and dollar/pound (DGBP) currency pairs slipped into pressure owing to global cues such as the uncertainty about Greece bailout package. However, both the pairs were recording encouraging trading turnover on Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) of late, thanks to the speculative arbitrage trading.
By trading 877 lots, DEUR June contract recorded the highest volume on DGCX, while DGBP futures traded 429 lots. Both the pairs accounted for the lion's share in the total trading as at 3:45pm yesterday. The euro witnessed the highest volume of 5509 lots on Monday as well, while the pound recorded 1020 lots.
"Volumes are good because of speculative and arbitrage trading. Investors' confidence on DGCX is going stronger as it gives good opportunities to traders. Volatility is good for attractive price fluctuations that adds to volumes on the bourse," Pradeep Unni, Senior Research Analyst at Richcomm Global Services, DMCC, told Emirates Business.
DEUR futures June contract on DGCX was trading at $135.15 cents per euro at the time of writing this. The DEUR futures closed the previous week lower by 1.60 per cent to $1.354. The weekly highest was $1.382 and lowest $1.351.
"I would continue to be bearish for euro/dollar and add to my short positions at $1.3600-1.3650," said Nadeem Khan, Senior Financial Analyst at Century Financial Brokers.
"The reason being the possibility of Greece going to IMF for help and the deficit problems of Greece, which can result in financial contagion," he said.
"The euro/dollar pair continues to balk when approaching a new significant low or high. The estimated range between 1.3450 and 1.3800 has been relevant for nearly two months. For the DEUR, this is a long time to stay in a range this size," said Bradley W Gareiss, Technical Analyst at GFT.
GBP futures, which ranged between $1.537 and $1.497 before closing at $1.501 netting a weekly fall of 1.23 per cent, were trading at $150.10 cents a pound. "The pound is rangebound. I believe it will be in the range of 1.4850 to 1.5350 versus dollar for this week. So buying and selling at the ends respectively will be the key trading affair for this week," said Khan.
"The pound is also under pressure. Sterling fell after UK inflation data came in lower than expected. Adding to this, analysts forecast hung parliament as the UK is heading for elections mid-year. This prediction on the back of economic crisis has dampened the trading sentiment for the pound. The political turmoil is the cause of concern for the currency," said Unni.
"The pound may move between $1.50 and $1.54 this week, with a bias on the lower end of the range. The pound rose toward $1.54 in the middle of the previous week, but gave up most of it gains as the week progressed," said CPM Group.
The euro rebounded from a three-week low against the dollar on Monday with the return of some risk appetite. But it was short lived as the European currency was pressured by worries over Greece's ability to secure the much-needed financial aid. The euro has slid more than five per cent against the dollar since the start of the year as concern mounted over the debt sustainability in Greece and other smaller euro zone members.
"The euro may test support levels this week. A forceful break below $1.35 could push the euro toward $1.32. Concerns over Grecian debt problems have risen in line with political tensions within the euro zone. A move toward dollar denominated assets has been on the rise in recent weeks, and could remain in place this week," said CPM Group in its research note.
"The Greece factor is impacting trading in euro and the situation will remain as long as it's not solved. The dollar and euro currency pair is under pressure ahead of European Committee meeting," said Unni.

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