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29 March 2024

All eyes on Copenhagen as world seeks answers to global warming

All eyes on Copenhagen as world seeks answers to global warming. (REUTERS)

Published
By Mohammed Elsidafy

World leaders will gather in Denmark this week to discuss a new agreement to tackle global warming.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference starts in Copenhagen today and continues until December 18. The meeting will focus the world's attention on the threat to humanity posed by the increase in atmospheric temperatures.

Last February, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report that sounded alarm bells. The panel, established in 1988, is a scientific body made up of eminent experts and specialists. The study, the fourth by IPCC, reflects discussions between 500 scientists from 150 countries.

The study highlights the threat posed to the world by global warming, which, it says, is a result of human activity rather than a natural effect. It says global warming will lead to a rise in the level of the oceans and seas, causing a serious deterioration of the climate over the next 1,000 years.

The Earth surface's temperature could rise by between 1.1C and 6.4C during the current century. The last 11 years have seen the highest temperatures since records were first kept in 1850. The study says the burning of fossil fuels and the gases produced – especially carbon dioxide – were responsible for most of the temperature increases recorded during the second half of the last century.

It forecasts the level of the oceans and seas will rise by between 18cm and 59cm by the end of the century as a result of the melting of the icecaps at the two poles.

The rise in temperatures will lead to a reduction in the ability of the Earth and the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide. Consequently the effects of the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere will double.

The IPCC blames the major industrial countries for the rise in the levels of temperature-increasing greenhouse gases that include water vapour, methane, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons.

Factories and other buildings together with cars and other means of transport produce huge amounts of the gases. Some 40 per cent come from factories, 31 per cent from other buildings and 22 per cent from transport.

Industrial countries are responsible for the production of 55 per cent of greenhouse gases. The US is the biggest producer – it generates about 21 per cent of the gases even though its population amounts to just five per cent of the world's total. China with 15 per cent is next, followed by the European Union with 14 per cent. Pledges to reduce emissions by leading countries are often hindered by self-interest.

According to some studies, temperatures will rise by an average of 4C by the end of this century if pollution and gas emissions continue at their current levels.

Large parts of tropical islands, marine deltas and low coastal areas will disappear as water levels rise, and diseases such as malaria, typhoid and cholera will become more widespread.

Some vital wildlife havens such as tropical forests and coral reefs will be destroyed and many species will become extinct because they cannot adapt to their new environments.

There will be more arid land and agricultural production will fall as a result of drought. Patterns of rain and snowfall and ocean currents will change and the salinity and acidity of seawater will go up. Global warming will cause shortages of water supplies which will ignite conflicts on a number of continents, especially in countries with a high rate of population growth.

Countries likely to become involved in water conflicts are Egypt, Ethiopia, Namibia, Angola, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Palestine, India and Bangladesh, according to a British report.

The IPCC study highlights global warming as an element that is likely to spark conflict during the current century, saying that floods, the melting of snow on the two poles and desertification might lead to a shortage of arable land, the poisoning of water supplies and the destruction of economic infrastructure.

Growing concern

Concern over climate change is growing and the recent summit of industrial countries in Germany pledged to curb by half the environment-polluting gases by 2050.

Scientists, who met in the US city of Saint Louis in February 2006, said Greenland's ice, which they see as a model for other tipping points, would slide into the ocean in less than the previously expected period of 1,000 years.

The scientists based their assumption on new indicators in a study issued by the National Aeronautics and Space Agency in cooperation with Kansas University. They noticed that the volume of ice sliding into the ocean has doubled during the past five years.

According to the tipping point theory, the rise in temperatures leads to the melting of ice in Greenland, pushing up sea levels. As a result, cities and islands in the Pacific Ocean will be engulfed.

The effects of global warming started to appear in the past few years. In the Philippines, researchers noticed the rice harvest has been affected by the rise in temperatures.

The report says the residents of countries that currently receive aid will fall victim to subsequent drought and floods as a result of the carbon emissions produced by countries that are more economically advanced. It adds the number of people threatened with these floods in Africa will rise from the current figure of one million to 70 million by 2080. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned that a drop in oil production in a number of countries combined with increased global warming would contribute to an increase in the number of starving people.

Dr Mohammed Al Zarka, an environmental affairs expert, attributed the global warming to a combination of human activity and natural causes.

Venus feels the heat

"Sea levels rose by 20cm over the last century and snow cover in the northern hemisphere fell by 10 per cent over the last 50 years," said Zarka.

"I expect the area of the Nile Delta in Egypt will be reduced by 30sq km by the end of the century and drought in Africa will increase, especially in coastal areas. That will lead to the loss of large areas of agricultural land.

"Ecological systems in dry regions, such as Western Asia and the Middle East, will not be affected by climate change, though such systems will be slightly affected in semi-dry regions, especially regarding the distribution and quality of plants."

Dr Farouk Al Baz, Principal of Boston University's Space Research Centre, said global warming increased temperatures on the planet Venus to hundreds of degrees centigrade, to the extent that some elements, such as lead, were found in liquid form.

He said the increase in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere would result in a noticeable change in the environment as it would affect sea currents and fish and lead to the melting of snow at North and South Poles and an increase in the level of the oceans. Consequently, some coastal areas would disappear under seal level and some coast areas, such as the Nile Delta and the Arabian Gulf, would be exposed to danger.

Al Baz said scientific research could produce methods of removing excessive carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

At the local level, Dr Mohammed Saeed Al Kindi, former minister of environment and water of the UAE, attributed global warming to emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide, which led to an increase in the planet's temperature and climate change. Kindi said it would impact natural systems in the long term and lead to the appearance of new diseases and viruses that could threaten the survival of many types of plants and animals.

"The phenomenon can be combated through joint international efforts, effective planning and the creation of suitable mechanism for co-operation with international society organisations that are concerned with this issue," he said.

Kindi praised the UAE's efforts and keenness to commit to global moves to protect the environment through agreements and co-operation between regional and international organisations.


UAE KEEN TO SUPPORT GLOBAL INITIATIVES

The UAE is committed and keen to support international efforts for combating global warming, according to Dr Rashid Ahmed bin Fahad, UAE Minister of Environment and Water.

He said the UAE already has several legislations and governmental decisions in place for environmental protection in the country. Federal Law number 24 of 1999 makes it mandatory for bodies such as factories to check their pollution levels and use clean energy. In addition, the UAE Cabinet recently issued a decision instructing all bodies concerned to use clean energy. Fahad said the UAE occupies an advanced and pioneering position in the Gulf region in such efforts and in green legislations. He also pointed to initiatives such as "Masdar City" and other green building initiatives, which have placed the UAE at the forefront of the global green efforts.

Bin Fahad also said there was a two-pronged approach in the UAE towards combating global warming. The first was to support international efforts through participation in all meetings and activities pertaining to this vital issue, especially the Kyoto Protocol and its emerging decisions that call for adherence to clean technology.

The second was related to the country's own initiatives and efforts in this regard. The UAE is trying to limit carbon emissions through the support of clean energy programmes. Towards this end, "Masdar City" was established in Abu Dhabi and a green buildings initiative was adopted in Dubai, apart from the support extended to clean energy production programmes. In order to alleviate its carbon footprint, the UAE recently approved the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes to meet its needs of clean energy.

Fahad said the UAE was not a causative factor for the phenomenon of global warming, as its carbon emissions are low and almost non-existent when compared to the emissions of the top industrial countries, even though its per capita emissions are among the very highest in the world.

"We, as developing countries, are harmed by the phenomenon and we can be considered as victims, not causative elements," he said.


Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol was signed in Japan in 1997. The protocol obliges industrial countries to reduce their total gas emissions by at least five per cent from 1990 levels by between 2008 and 2010.

Three mechanisms were defined to help the signatories to reduce their emissions – the clean development mechanism, the emissions trading system and the join implementation mechanism.

World leaders are now trying to produce a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol.


EEG HIGHLIGHTS UAE'S ROLE IN KEEPING CLIMATE CLEAN

Habiba Al Marashi, Chairperson of Emirates Environmental Group (EEG), underlined the UAE's pioneering position in taking positive steps related to combating global warming because of which the UAE was not included in the list of countries that are required to reduce their carbon emissions. She highlighted many volunteer measures and initiatives such as green building programmes, use of lead-free petrol and adoption of a consumption rationalisation policy.

Marashi said there was a wrong belief that oil-producing countries were partially responsible for global warming.

In fact, while it is true oil is produced here, its use and consumption is the greatest in industrialised countries, which are the biggest causes for the increase of carbon emissions, she said.


CARBON TRADING

The emergence of global warming led to the creation of carbon trading which depends on the idea that the environment has a value and certain activities will cause pollution.

The European Union determined the quantities of gas emissions that caused the phenomenon, and a market for the trading of gas emissions emerged. Licences for the quantities of gas that are allowed to be produced by factories are traded.

Companies whose gas emissions exceed the quantity allowed in the licence should buy the licences of companies whose emissions were lower than the allowed limit.

Those involved in carbon trading are governments which determine the limits and companies and individuals who volunteered to combat gas emissions.

 

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