Opec likely to slash oil production by record 2mn bpd

Still, Moscow distanced itself from direct ties with the 13-nation producers’ group and its commitment to work more closely with Opec also appeared tentative.

Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said there was a consensus within Opec ahead of a formal agreement later in the day for the production cut, which would represent the largest single Opec cut ever.

An Opec reduction of that magnitude four years ago was only enacted in stages.

Also significant would be formal support from Russia and other non-Opec producers. Mexico, Norway and Russia slashed production in the late 1990s, at a time oil was selling for about $10 a barrel.

Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin and Azeri Energy Minister Natik Aliev announced cutbacks of a total of more than 600,000 barrels a day.

Still, their commitments appeared to be at least partially symbolic. The Russians indicated their reductions were already implemented in November, while Azerbaijan’s output had already been reduced by about a third due to production problems earlier this year.

Oil prices were little changed ahead of the formal decision, signalling that the market was not surprised by the size of the expected cut and perhaps underwhelmed by Russia’s commitments. Light, sweet crude for January delivery was down 36 cents to $43.24 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, February Brent crude rose 41 cents to $47.04 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil prices were lower ahead of the decision after being higher earlier in the day. In the afternoon in Europe, light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $0.67 to $42.93 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had been above $45 a barrel earlier.

Naimi first mentioned the two million figure in Oran on Tuesday, the eve of the oil ministers’ decision-making meeting. On Wednesday he said the ministers were likely to agree “on a reduction of two million barrels per day from what we are doing today ... a significant cut”.

“We also hope that other producers who are not in Opec will chip in for the purpose of bringing stability to the market,” he said, in a nod to Russia, the top oil producer after the Saudis.

Sechin said “Russian oil companies have already made a decision to cut deliveries to the market ... approximately equivalent to 350,000 barrels per day”. But he specified that his country’s cuts had already been enacted ahead of the Opec meeting.

Sechin did hold out the possibility of further reductions, saying Russia was ready to pare another 320,000 barrels a day “if we see the continuation of the current level of prices on the world oil markets”.

But with Russian production falling, due in part to lagging investment, it was unclear whether some of the cuts enacted or proposed were simply a way of packaging Moscow’s inability to maintain present output levels. Even before Sechin’s comments, Russian output – now close to 10 million barrels a day – was expected to decline by 1 per cent this year and by around 2 per cent in 2009.

That, and the fact that Russia was announcing reductions already enacted, diminished the significance of its move.

Sechin’s vague comments on further cooperation with Opec (he mentioned plans for possible “permanent observer status”, without specifying what that meant) also signalled Moscow’s reluctance to trade its traditional independence for closer ties with the 13-nation producers’ group.

Sechin did not rule out full membership eventually, but said: “We are not rushing”. A member of the Russian delegation who asked for anonymity because he was not authorised to comment was blunter, saying his country had no interest in joining Opec.

Aliev said his country “will support the Opec cuts”, slashing up to 300,000 barrels a day from Azerbaijan’s output. That would be more than a third of total production for the country on the oil-rich Caspian Sea.

Still, Azerbaijan’s proposed cuts may be involuntary. After an accident on the main BP pumping platform in October, oil industry analysts say the country’s output has dropped to around 500,000 barrels a day, the level Aliev was proposing at Oran.

Aliev said his government had calculated the 2009 budget based on an oil price of $70 a barrel, and would have to compensate for the loss of money by tapping into a strategic government oil fund. Oil prices have plunged in recent months to less than $50 a barrel from $147 a barrel in July.

That might be good for consumers already straining from the financial crisis. But like Azerbaijan,  Opec and non-Opec producers are hurting from levels that are in some cases now below what’s needed to balance their budgets or earn a profit.

Oil producers fear a drawn-out lull in prices could hurt investment and lay the groundwork for another sharp price spike when the world’s economy rebounds.

“There’s always been some finger-pointing at Opec, but now even some (rich consuming nations) are saying maybe prices have gone too far,” Olivier Jakob of energy analysis firm Petromatrix in Switzerland said, ahead of the meeting. “In terms of security of supply, you are much worse at $40 a barrel than at $75.”

Opec gave ministers ammunition to justify cuts in its latest monthly market report, released Tuesday, which predicted demand for its crude oil will have fallen by 700,000 barrels per day this year and will drop by at least twice that amount in 2009 as the worsening global economy is expected to have a strong impact on oil demand.

Still, while eager to push prices higher, Opec must weigh production cuts against the risk of driving the economies of its top customers deeper into recession.

A senior Opec official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to comment publicly, said “reasonable” Opec nations would accept prices around $50 a barrel in the short term so as not to contribute to the world economic downturn.

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