Arab equity investors richer by $134 billion

Arab equity investors emerged wealthier by nearly $134 billion (Dh492bn) at the end of 2009 to offset part of post-crisis losses, but the general performance of the region's bourses was below other markets, according to an official Arab market watch.

Despite a surge in the number of shares traded in the Arab stock exchanges last year, mainly in the UAE, turnover plunged by nearly $344bn, partly because of lower prices while the number of listed firms fell by 47.

The figures by the Abu Dhabi-based Arab Monetary Fund (AMF), which tracks the movement of regional markets through its joint stocks data base, showed the bulk of the increase in their combined market capitalisation was in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, while there was a fall in small bourses.

Releasing its quarterly bulletin on the Arab markets for the fourth quarter of 2009, the AMF said its complex index for the region's 15 official trading floors swelled by 18.1 per cent at the end of 2009 from the previous year.

"This growth illustrates the gradual recovery of the Arab markets from the repercussions of the global economic crisis, although this recovery has not fully covered their losses from the crisis," the report said.

"Compared with other markets, performance of the Arab bourses was close to major global market albeit slightly lower."

The report showed there was growth of 23.5 per cent in the S&P 500 index, 22.1 per cent in the FTSE 100, 22.3 per cent in the CAC 40 and 19.1 per cent in the Japan's Nikkei Index.

"Compared with emerging markets, the Arab markets underperformed those markets which have offset a large part of their losses from the crisis."

The report showed the MSC1 index for Latin America jumped by nearly 98 per cent through last year, while there was an increase of between 42 and 70 per cent in the indices of the markets in East Europe and Asia.

Capitalisation

"As for the market capitalisation in the Arab region, there was an increase of $194bn at the end of 2009," said the AMF report.

Taken individually, the report showed Saudi Arabia's Tadawul, by far the largest and busiest bourse in the Middle East, leaped by nearly 29.4 per cent to $318.8bn at the end of 2009, almost 35 per cent of the total Arab capitalisation.

Kuwait soared by 33.7 per cent, while there was an increase of about 16.6 per cent in Abu Dhabi, 14.8 per cent in Qatar and as high as 56 per cent in Oman.

The report showed the number of companies listed in the region's bourses declined to 1,495 at the end of 2009 from 1,542 at the end of 2008. It attributed the drop to lower new listings and the exit of some firms in Egypt's bourse.

"The decline was a result of the annulment of some listed companies in Egypt's bourse and the low growth in listings and initial public offerings in the region."

The report showed turnover, the value of traded shares, slumped by around 34.5 per cent in the region last year and the bulk of share dealing was confined in a handful of markets, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt, which accounted for 93.9 per cent of the total turnover in 2009.

Traded shares

As for the number of traded shares, it surged by 19.6 per cent in 2009, according to the report, which blamed a plunge in share prices and receding dealing in some regional bourses for the low turnover.

"The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait accounted for nearly 85.2 per cent of the total number of traded shares last year, with the UAE emerging as the largest market in terms of traded shares, controlling 40.4 per cent of the total shares traded in the Arab bourses last year," the AMF said.

A breakdown showed nine of the region's bourses were gainers last year in terms of market capitalisation, with the largest gain achieved in the bourses of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt. From around $769bn at the end of 2008, the combined market capitalisation of the Arab bourses swelled to $903bn at the end of 2009, the report showed.

The gain followed a staggering loss of more than $400bn in the fourth quarter of 2008 as a result of the global market downturn.

Share investors in the UAE and other Gulf oil producers were the main victims as they reeled under a loss of $320bn, said the AMF.

Despite some gains in early 2009, the market capitalisation of the Arab exchanges dived to $794.26bn at the end of April 2009 from nearly $1,119.81bn in mid-September 2008, when the crisis erupted. The bourses of the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) were hit hardest, plummeting by nearly $320.4bn from $923.7bn to $603.27bn.

Analysts said the lower-than-expected performance of GCC markets in 2009 was mainly due to a sharp decline in the real estate sector and debt default problems.

"The markets in the region could have performed even worse but it was cushioned by the strong fiscal measures taken by regional states," said Fadi Kiswani of the Sahrjah-based Al Sharhan Securities.

Arab markets had started their decline before the Lehman Brothers' collapse, dipping by around $158bn in the first half of September. They recorded their largest ever daily loss of $32bn on September 16.

In 2007, the region's bourse recorded one of their best periods as they soared by $458bn to $1,330bn at the end of 2007 from $872bn at the end of 2006.

The trend was reversed in 2008, when they collapsed by $525bn to $805bn at the end of the year.

During 2009, the largest increase in market capitalisation was in the Saudi bourse, which grew by $72bn to $318bn at the end of 2009 from $246bn at the end of 2008, the AMF figures showed.

Abu Dhabi surged by $12bn while there was an increase of about $11bn in Qatar, $9bn in Morocco and $6bn in Egypt.

The report showed the AMF's complex index for all Arab markets grew from 170.2 at the end of 2008 to 196.3 at the end of 2009.

Dubai surge

Individually, eight bourses in the region recorded growth while seven declined.

The gainers were the bourses of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Palestine, Oman, Lebanon and Tunisia.

Dubai recorded the highest growth in the region, with its AMF index nearly doubling from 207.4 to 405.1 in the same period.

In a report on regional markets, the Kuwaiti Financial Centre Markaz said the GCC bourses significantly underperformed the emerging markets during 2009.

"As against a 74 per cent increase in emerging markets during 2009, GCC market returned a pale 18 per cent," it said. "Surprisingly oil prices remained strong throughout 2009…the financial crisis laid bare the fragilities of the GCC stock markets. While market-specific bad news was mainly responsible for the lacklustre performance, lack of progress in regulatory structure [a key determining factor for attracting credible foreign money], and steep fall in liquidity [value traded] added to the woes."

In its forecast for 2010, Markaz expected positive performance in Saudi Arabia and Qatar but gave neutral projection for the remaining GCC markets.

Markaz's forecasts for 2010

Saudi Arabia: We maintain our positive outlook on Saudi Arabia driven by strong positive economic expectations, healthy corporate earnings, positive investor sentiment and a stable geopolitical structure.

Pockets of neutrality exist in terms of valuations, market liquidity and regulatory structure. Economically, the kingdom is expected to resume growing at four per cent in 2010, while inflation is expected to remain under control.

Healthy crude oil prices are expected to have a positive effect on the fiscal and current balances. As for corporate earnings growth, these are expected at 14 per cent for 2010 versus 26 per cent in 2009.

Kuwait: We have revised our outlook on Kuwait from positive [in September 2009] to neutral for 2010.

While the country's economic and corporate earnings outlook remain positive, the distress in the investment sector and lack of concrete positive triggers may hamper growth.

Investor sentiment is low at the moment with lacklustre trading. Kuwait's economy is set to resume a growth rate of 3.3 per cent in 2010, about half the historical average, while inflation is likely to remain under control.

Healthy oil prices and low fiscal spending will produce healthy fiscal and current account balances in the coming year.

UAE: We maintain our neutral outlook on the UAE given the mixed signals in the country.

The economic outlook is positive with a three per cent GDP growth expected for 2010, while investor sentiment remains fairly positive. Additionally, the geopolitical and regulatory arenas are considered to be stable.

On the other hand, corporate earnings look negative for 2010, with an overall decline of nine per cent expected for 2010 after an estimated drop of about 26 per cent in 2009.

The financial services, banks and real estate sectors are expected to drag overall earnings, with annual fall of 21, 16 and 15 per cent, respectively.

Telecom is the only sector expected to post positive earnings growth in 2010, to the tune of 10 per cent.

Qatar: We have revised upwards our outlook on Qatar, from neutral to positive, on the back of good economic and corporate earnings.

Qatar's GDP is expected to grow at 18 per cent in 2010 coupled with positive fiscal and current balances. Corporate earnings are expected to show an overall growth of 15 per cent in 2010, after declining an estimated three per cent in 2009.

The banking and telecom sectors are expected to boost overall earnings, with 2010 growth rates of 33 and 15 per cent, respectively.

Oman: We have revised downwards our outlook on Oman, from positive to neutral, due to decelerated economic growth, moderating corporate earnings outlook and low market liquidity.

Real GDP growth is expected to decelerate in 2010, growing at 3.8 per cent versus four per cent in 2009, while the current account balance is expected to remain negative. Bahrain: We have revised upwards our outlook on Bahrain from negative to neutral, as positive stimulus comes from corporate earnings.

Corporate earnings are expected to surge by 51 per cent in 2010 following an estimated growth of nine per cent for 2009.

Financial services are expected to remain a drag on overall earnings but a forecast 59 per cent growth in Bank earnings is expected to boost overall earnings.

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