High employee attrition rates, a common problem that most employers faced in the UAE during boom time, may not return this year even as the job market stays on the improvement track.

"Expectations are for the economic recovery to be moderately paced and sustainable, and there have been no signs till date of a return to the high attrition rates we saw during the very heated years in the UAE employment market, prior to mid-2008," Amer Zureikat, Regional Manager at Bayt.com, told Emirates Business.

According to Zureikat, companies in the country have been very careful in hiring people in the recent past and that should probably insulate them from any kind of significant employee turnover.

"Employers in the UAE have been very careful in the past two years to hire the best calibre talent and the most relevant talent. And professionals who have remained steadily employed following the downsizings and restructurings tend to be top calibre professionals who are a sound fit for their organisations and enjoy a clear and progressive career path within these organisations," he said.

Cliff Single, Commercial Manager at BAC Middle East, said: "The events of the past 18 months have understandably resulted in higher levels of risk aversion among employees, with stability becoming the priority for many people. This has resulted in many candidates staying in their current roles if those are perceived as stable rather than taking the risk of moving to a new company with the risks and uncertainty that entails."

However, there may still be a spike in employee attrition rate this year because of the downsizing exercises that companies in the country may undergo.

Matthew Carter, Managing Director, McArthur Murray, said: "In certain sectors, such as real estate and the associated industries, we have already seen a high attrition rate, and this will continue in some areas as the workflow comes to an end.

"Other sectors may see challenges this year and reality bites. The attrition we are seeing is two-fold – organisations reducing size to enable their business to 're-shape' to reflect the current market demand; and organisations that are restructuring their management teams to improve their performance during this period. Different market conditions sometimes require different skills and experiences in leadership."

However, high-potential employees, who are often in demand, may still move jobs as opportunities arise elsewhere in the market.

According to analysts, sought-after, qualified and capable employees change jobs irrespective of the economic condition.

"High-potential employees are generally sought after in all market conditions. And as labour markets tighten and employers start competing for increasingly scarce talent pools, high-potential employees qualified for strategic roles in fast-growth industries generally command the greatest premium in the marketplace," said Zureikat.

"Interestingly, as per our 2010 survey, as many as 53 per cent of surveyed professionals in the UAE indicated that quality of life considerations might induce them to move to a better-paying industry in the next 12 months. A further 36 per cent would seek to change jobs by moving to a different company within the same industry, while 13 per cent expressed readiness to start their own company," he said, indicating a much anticipated employee movement this year after a very stagnant 2009.

Hasnain Qazi, Middle East Business Manager at Pathway Resourcing, said: "People looking for jobs at present within the Middle East and North Africa region range from employees in secure and insecure jobs, as well as those that fall in the middle. As the market gains some stability, and early economic recovery indicators persist, more employees will gain the confidence to seriously consider new opportunities as opposed to window-shopping out of curiosity."

Single agreed, stating: "As the global and regional markets recover, one would expect to see lower levels of risk aversion and more candidates willing to take the risk of moving to new companies for reasons such as improved career prospects, financial rewards or job satisfaction.

"As the candidates start to look ahead more rather than focusing on preserving what they currently have, this will likely have an impact on attrition rates.

"One would expect this to be more noticeable with high-potential employees, simply because they are likely to enjoy more options in the market. Companies need to ensure that they are well-placed to retain their top talent during the recovery."

However, Carter believes that even high achievers are being careful at the moment. "We are seeing a trend where high achievers are very careful about seriously considering roles," he said.

"It is probably harder now to facilitate these moves than it was at the peak. The high achievers are defined as people who have actually achieved results while they have been here and have a credible background. They are focused on looking at opportunities where the employer has a credible business strategy, proven business model, and also has funding in place. The trend we see is that people considering moves polarise towards this type of organisation," he said.

Jobless rate in GCC may rise

According to a report by TalentRepublic.net, the unemployment rate in the GCC reached 8.8 per cent in 2009 and is poised to increase to 10.5 per cent in 2010. With the growing demand for more employment opportunities, GCC governments could intervene and mobilise new programmes that help citizens become more proactive and self-sufficient, said the report.

The report pointed out that among the most effective campaigns that can be initiated by GCC governments are collaborative efforts with private educational institutions to create specialised training programmes for unemployed citizens and fresh graduates, which will equip them with skills and techniques to become self-employed.

The report also urged the establishment of more comprehensive microfinance initiatives to support small-scale projects or other business ventures.

Such initiatives can come in the form of loans, which benefit from subsidies generated by an interest rate administered by the government. The loans can be granted to people willing to start new business ventures in areas that remain relatively untapped.

The report also highlighted the concept of 'micropreneurs', which is based on low-risk, high-payoff, low start-up cost businesses.