Wealth alone no guarantee of football success

Richer countries do not generally outperform poorer opposition in football, says a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

According to the paper, titled 'What can econometrics tell us about World Cup performance?', Brazil are the statistical favourites at this year's World Cup tournament in South Africa, while England would do well to get beyond the quarter finals based on both current Fifa world rankings and historic World Cup performance.

John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics, PricewaterhouseCoopers, said: "Brazil remains the favourite to lift the World Cup this summer as the number one ranked footballing nation and the only country that has won the tournament outside its home region. England seems a reasonable bet to reach the quarter finals based on its current Fifa world ranking and past World Cup performance, but it will do well to get beyond that point – which it has never done before when playing outside Europe."

However, veteran UAE-based sports journalist Edwin Ashie Nikoi, who specialises in football and reported extensively on the sport for Dubai TV, told Emirates Business: "There are always surprises in football. So many times teams that are tipped as hot favourites don't do too well on the big day. For example, in the recent Champions League finals Inter Milan had a 2-0 win over Bayern Munich, which was tipped to win the final.

"There are several factors that matter, for instance the condition of the players on the day of the match, the training, the discipline, the injuries. The most important factors that determine the winners in any game is the team. Even if you have the money and a strong tradition of football in your country, if you don't have good players and a good team, which works together seamlessly and in complete co-ordination with each other, then it will not get you the cup."

The PwC paper finds that there is no significant link between average income (gross domestic product per capita) levels and tournament success. Relatively low income countries from Latin America have often matched or beaten their more affluent European rivals, particularly when playing in their home region.

However, Nikoi said: "I would not discount the role that money plays in bringing home the cup. Even though money is not the only deciding factor, I would not discount its role because the fact remains that money can buy you the best players, the best coaches, the best training equipment, the best fitness equipment and diet for the players as well as the best training grounds. So money does matter, but at the end of the day it's the performance of the team, the day of the match and a whole lot of other factors that determine the winner."

According to PwC, home advantage and the strength of historic football traditions may turn out to be the playmakers in World Cup success. Home advantage is one factor that is found to be highly statistically important in explaining success in both the Fifa World Cup and the Olympic Games. The host nation has won six out of 18 World Cups and, even when they did not win, the home countries have generally had strong campaigns.

England and France only won the World Cup when playing on home soil, while smaller countries such as Uruguay (which won at home in the first World Cup in 1930), Sweden (which reached the final at home in 1958) and South Korea (which beat Italy and reached the semi-finals in 2002) have all outperformed expectations when hosting the World Cup.

There is also a clear host region effect that may be associated with strong home crowd support and familiar climatic conditions. European countries have only won the World Cup when it has been held in Europe, while Latin American teams have won all of the World Cups held in the Americas. Cameroon and Nigeria should, therefore, have the potential to do relatively well this year, while South Africa should do much better than its lowly Fifa ranking of 90th suggests.

Nikoi disagreed: "I don't think that South Africa will benefit from the home advantage. Their team is not in a good shape and just being the host country is not going to get them anywhere."

UAE fans tip brazil to win

According to a survey by Visa, which is one of the six global Fifa partners, more than one third of UAE football fans polled predict that Brazil will be victorious at the 2010 Fifa World Cup.

Meanwhile, 16 per cent tipped Argentina to take the top spot, with 11 per cent favouring Spain. UAE football fans are also confident that the Fifa World Cup will be hosted by a Middle Eastern country in the next 20 years with 40 per cent believing that this is definitely likely, and 50 per cent viewing it as probable. The UAE was also tipped to be the most likely Middle Eastern country to host the World Cup according to 74 per cent of respondents, while 15 per cent thought that Qatar would play host in the future followed by seven per cent who predicted that Saudi Arabia would be the first Middle Eastern country to become a host nation.

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