Gold may rally back to $1,635

Remains sensitive to overall risk sentiment on Europe woes

Gold had an interesting week. It is also range bound between $1,550 and $1,630 and it remains very sensitive to overall risk sentiment.

Thus, it tends to rally when stocks rally and Spanish bond yields fall, and decline when stocks decline and investors start to take risk off the table. Due to this the gold price is likely to be impacted by events in Europe, especially Spain. Gold may well rally back to the

$1,635 zone – the top of the recent range – if the rest of the market can manage to sustain gains. So if you are trading the gold price, make sure that you are aware of the overall tone in the market first. 

After a stunning recovery for most of this month, the oil price has started to falter. It could not sustain gains above $105, but appears to be in a range between $107 on the upside and $100.40 on the downside. The $107 level is a double-top, a technical pattern that suggests the uptrend could be coming to an end, and the $100.40 level is the 50-day moving average. Both of these technical signals may be taken seriously by the market, and any oil traders should make themselves aware of these levels. 

The oil price had one of the most stunning recoveries in the financial markets in recent weeks, outpacing gains in European stocks;  however, sovereign stress in Spain has thwarted the rally. Since the problems in Europe seem far from over, we could be range-bound in oil for some time. 

(Kathleen Brooks is Emea Research Director at FOREX.com)