Why the gold price will fall further

It has been a big week for commodities with both oil and the gold price coming under a wave of selling pressure.

Commodities have come under pressure from two sources: firstly, the flare up in Eurozone crisis after the Greek and French elections.

Secondly, the US dollar has risen nearly 2% since the election results, and since commodities are priced in dollars when it rises it tends to weigh on the price of oil and gold etc.

The recent selling pressure has been so strong it has pushed gold and US oil prices through important technical support levels.

The gold price is currently below $1,600 per ounce after it fell through the $1,614 support zone.

This was the base of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, a technical signal that suggests the yellow metal is now in a downtrend and there could be further declines in the future.

US oil has also come under pressure.

It fell below $100 per barrel at the end of last week.

It is being driven lower by risk aversion caused by the Eurozone crisis, but it is also weakening because of the weak Non-Farm Payrolls data for April in the US that caused some concern about the strength of the US economic recovery.

Overall, the fundamental back drop is not supportive of commodity prices.

Until we get some clarity on the Greek crisis in Europe then we could see further selling pressure in the commodity sphere as the dollar attracts safe haven flows.

The writer is Emea Research Director at FOREX.com

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