Another N.Korean strike almost certain

North Korea may have backed down in its latest brinkmanship, but experts see another military strike on South Korea as almost inevitable as Pyongyang seeks to bolster a dynastic succession and secure aid.

A series of acts of aggression by the North - including the alleged torpedoing of a South Korean warship in March and the shelling of a disputed island last month - have raised tensions on the peninsula to boiling point.

But, faced with a conservative government in Seoul emboldened by a public outcry over the first bombardment of a civilian area since the 1950-53 Korean War, Pyongyang has recently showed signs of softening its bellicose stance.

It reportedly offered nuclear concessions to visiting US politician Bill Richardson, leaving the door open to the return of nuclear inspectors.

The North also failed to carry out its threat of "merciless punishment" for a live-fire drill by the South on Monday. But that only suggests a "strategic pause" in its well-honed tactics of testing the limits of Seoul's patience, analysts said.

"It's not a question of whether there will be another provocation, but when," said Peter Beck, a North Korea expert with the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.

The North's belligerence, including missile and nuclear tests last year, "are all tied to efforts to ensure a stable succession, which makes it that much harder to find a viable solution", he told AFP.

The North's ailing dictator Kim Jong-Il is believed to see such shows of military strength as necessary to ensure a smooth power transfer to his youngest son and heir apparent Kim Jong-Un.

"The aim is to portray Jong-Un as a strong, tough leader and rally the people behind the regime by creating a fear of war," Beck said.

Acts of aggression - including the 1987 bombing of a Korean airliner and a 1983 assassination attempt against a South Korean president visiting Myanmar - were staged when Kim Jong-Il was being groomed to succeed his own father.

For Andrei Lankov, a professor at Seoul's Kookmin University, North Korea's sabre-rattling is aimed at securing a resumption of much-needed economic aid from the South.

The South has drastically cut its assistance to the North since a conservative government took office in early 2008.

"Since the current Seoul government shows no sign of giving in ... we can be almost sure that in the next few months (the) North Koreans will strike again," Lankov wrote in a commentary in the Financial Times.

"They will do it not as a reaction to some South Korean drills, but rather at a time and place of their choice," he said.

Experts warned hostilities could flare up again in early 2011. Some believe that China - the North's sole major ally - ordered Pyongyang to show restraint until President Hu Jintao visits the United States next month.

"I don't believe there will be any fresh provocations by North Korea for a while, although they will never stop," said Lee Sang-Hyun, an analyst at the South's Sejong Institute.

"Unexpected provocations could come early next year when South Korea is relaxed," he said.

The South was to hold its largest ground-air joint fire drill this year on Thursday, involving artillery fire, missiles and fighter planes near the tense land border with the North.

Experts said such exercises were necessary as recent events have exposed weaknesses in Seoul's defence planning.

"Not to conduct military exercises would be irresponsible, ill-advised and counterproductive," said Daniel Pinkston, an expert at the International Crisis Group think-tank in Seoul.

"Some unexpected attack (by the North) remains possible and you have to remain alert for that. It's not going away."

Analysts also warned Pyongyang was unlikely to abandon its nuclear drive.

North Korea pulled out of six-nation nuclear talks in April 2009 and ordered UN nuclear inspectors to leave. It staged a second nuclear test a month later.

"Their attitude is: accept us as a nuclear power or we have nothing to talk about. There is no sign of meaningful concessions," said Beck.

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