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19 March 2024

An emirate's population drops 100,000…

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By Staff

Population of Ras Al Khaimah has declined by about 100,000, said an international ratings agency.

“A population census in late 2015 has resulted in a revised population estimate of 345,000 people as of 2015, down about 100,000 from previous estimates based on data provided by the UAE National Bureau of Statistics,” Fitch Ratings said in a statement.

“We estimate real GDP growth to have slowed to three per cent in 2015, after 7.4 per cent in 2014. We expect four per cent growth per year in 2016 and 2017, driven by tourism, the export of construction materials, and activity within the free trade zones. Saqr port tonnage rose 4.8 per cent, reflecting mostly exports of construction aggregates; the new rock crusher and an expansion of Saqr port in 2017 could drive further growth,” it said adding that the number of guest-nights at hotels grew 10 per cent in 2015, with strong growth in visitor numbers from Germany and China compensating for the negative impact of dollar strength and weakness in the Russian market.

Ras Al Khaimah’s rating was affirmed at ‘A’ with stable outlook by Fitch.

The agency expects hotel capacity in the emirate is set to increase 50 per cent over the next three years, and a key challenge will be to develop Ras al Khaimah as a destination to capitalise on the planned new capacity.

The headline government debt ratio will fall to 16.6 per cent in 2016 from 21.9 per cent in 2015, as no new debt is incurred and a $400 million sukuk was repaid using proceeds from an issue in 2015. Fitch expects debt to fall further in 2017 and beyond.

Headline debt figure does not include debt of government-owned companies which is expected to fall to 6.9 per cent of GDP in 2016.

Fitch expects cash deposits across the government and its entities to fall to 4.9 per cent of GDP.

Fitch projects a budget deficit of 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2016, versus a surplus of 0.3 per cent in 2015.

Fitch expects smaller increases in revenue in free trade zones, real estate and healthcare, following lower-than-budgeted revenue in these categories in 2015. Fitch also believes that expected increases in hotel capacity, occupancy, and room rates imply a smaller-than-budgeted increase in tourism revenues.