UAE population to rise to 6.1m in 2020

The combined populations of Gulf oil producers stood at around 39.26 million at the end of 2009 and are expected to rise by nearly 6.93 million after 10 years, according to a United Nations organization.

More than half the increase will come from Saudi Arabia, by far the largest and most populated member of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.

By the end of 2020, the combined population of the six members is projected to peak at nearly 46.193 million, its figures showed.

The population will maintain its steady growth in the following years to reach around 50.8 million at the end of 2025 and 65.5 million in 2050.

A breakdown showed Saudi Arabia’s population will grow from around 26.24 million at the end of 2009 to 31.6 million at the end of 2020.

The population of the UAE, the second largest economy in the Arab region, is projected to swell from about 4.7 million to 6.1 million while that of Kuwait is forecast to increase from 3.05 million to 3.9 million.

Oman’s population will rise from around 2.9 million to 3.7 million and that of Qatar from 1.5 million to 1.8 million. Bahrain, which has one of the smallest Arab populations but the highest population density, will see an increase from around 807,000 at the end of 2009 to 1.02 million in 2020, UNCTAT said.

In the longer term, the UAE’s population could reach 8.25 million in 2050 while that of Saudi Arabia could reach 43.6 million.

The population could surge to 5.2 million in Kuwait, 4.8 million in Oman, 2.3 million in Qatar and 1.27 million in Bahrain.

The report gave no nationality breakdown but expatriates form a majority in some GCC members, mainly Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. Saudi Arabia, the world’s dominant oil power, has the largest foreign community in the region, estimated at nearly eight million at the end of the first half of 2010.

The UAE has over three million foreigners while the rest of the estimated 15 million foreigners in the GCC are based in the other members.

Asians, mainly from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and the Philippines account for more than half the expatriate community in the GCC, which controls just over 40 per cent of the world’s recoverable oil wealth and a quarter of the global gas resources.

Foreigners began streaming into the Gulf nearly half a century ago when the discovery of oil kicked off one of the largest infrastructure construction drives in history. The drive has largely receded but regional nations continue to be heavily reliant on expatriates as more experienced and less costly labour.

Most GCC nations have not conducted an official census for many years and their first joint census scheduled for 2010 has been postponed. The six members normally publish population estimates through their government departments.

GCC countries have recorded one of the world’s highest population growth rates over the past three decades because of rapid birth rates among the natives and a massive influx of foreign workers to the region.

Despite the rapid growth, the GCC’s combined per capita income surged by nearly $7,000 to about $26,900 in 2008 because of high growth in their nominal economies due to a sharp rise in oil prices. But it dipped by nearly $6,000 in 2009 and is projected to have rebounded in 2010 due to higher oil prices.

The surge in the GDP by around 40 per cent to a record high level in 2008 was a result of a sharp increase in the group’s oil export earnings, which climbed to their highest level of more than $520 billion.

A breakdown for 2008 showed Qatar remained by far the wealthiest Arab nation in terms of GDP per capita, which stood at around $104,650. The UAE was second to Qatar, with a per capita of nearly $55,960.

GCC countries formed their economic, defence and political alliance in May 1981. Two years later, they signed an agreement to merge their economies by creating a customs union, a common market and a single currency.

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