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29 March 2024

N. Korea funeral watched as elite jockey for power

Published
By AFP

Late North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's funeral Wednesday will be closely watched for clues on the powers behind the throne as his untested son Jong-Un -- hailed as the "Great Successor" -- takes the helm.

The new leader likes basketball, skiing and Jean-Claude Van Damme movies, but the world knows little else about the chubby young man or how he will rule the nuclear-armed nation and its million-man military which he has inherited.

North Korea, in public at least, has closed ranks around Jong-Un since his father died of a heart attack on December 17.

The political and military elite will jockey for influence, analysts believe, but no one has an interest in rocking the boat too violently with a full-scale power struggle.

"These people understand that they have to hang together, otherwise they will hang separately," said Andrei Lankov of Seoul's Kookmin University.

But who will be advising the inexperienced youth, and who will he listen to?

"Kim Jong-Il's chosen regents, his brother-in-law Jang Song-Thaek and sister Kim Kyong-Hui, are the odds-on favourites at least initially, but how trusted Jang really is remains to be seen," wrote Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think-tank.

"Old-time Kremlinologists will have a field day figuring out who is standing where and what it all means," he said of Wednesday's funeral.

After the senior Kim's August 2008 stroke, Jang was widely seen as the country's second most powerful man. Last year he became a vice-chairman of the National Defence Commission (NDC), the country's top body.

Jang has had a chequered career, falling out of favour in 2004 for suspected corruption. He was for a time ordered to undergo re-education as a labourer at a steel mill.

In 2005 he made a comeback, and in 2007 took over the administration department of the ruling communist party which supervises police, judges and prosecutors.

Jang, 65, "is the real wild card in any succession scenario", wrote author and analyst Ken Gause in a blog post for the Korea Economic Institute.

"His support will be vital for his nephew's early consolidation of power. He, however, could stand in the way of Kim's long-term survival."

State TV Sunday showed Jang wearing military uniform with the insignia of a general, the first time he had been shown in public in such attire. The ruling party Saturday had hailed Jong-Un as "supreme commander" as he tries to tighten his grip over the 1.19 million-strong military.

Jang's wife Kim Kyong-Hui, 65, has been at the centre of power for almost 40 years and currently heads the party's light industry department.

She was promoted to four-star general in September last year at the same time as Jong-Un, a sign that she played a key role in the family's efforts to maintain its six-decade grip on power.

Gause also singled out O Kuk-Ryol, another NDC vice-chairman and longtime loyalist to the dynasty, and Ri Yong-Ho as key players in the new era. Ri heads the military general staff.

Several analysts predict a collective leadership will emerge, at least initially, with the son as focal point. But like so much else in the secretive state, it is unclear whether he will be a mere figurehead or a forceful ruler.

"More likely than not, Kim Jong-Un cannot fill his father's shoes at this point. It will take time for him to consolidate his power, if ever," said Gause.

Lankov told AFP that Jong-Un "will be a kind of figurehead, a presiding figure. Whether he will emerge as a real dictator or whether he will choose to remain a figurehead, we don't know."

Some say the son should not be underestimated. "He has a very strong character with a fiery temper," said Cheong Seong-Chang, of the Sejong Institute think-tank in Seoul. "You can never discount him as inexperienced."

Whoever calls the shots, most analysts agree the regime is unlikely to collapse or to change its policy direction dramatically, although fresh military provocations are not expected in the short term.

"Kim Jong-Il did not choose his successors because he thought they would change direction but because he expected them to stay the course," said Cossa.