Deadline looms but Qantas dispute may drag: experts

The deadline on talks to resolve Qantas's bitter dispute with unions, which culminated in last month's extraordinary shutdown of the airline, expires Monday but experts say a final deal could be months away.

Australia's industrial arbiter Fair Work Australia gave the "Flying Kangaroo" and three angry employee unions 21 days to negotiate to end their battle over wages and conditions after the airline's unprecedented grounding.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce, who stranded tens of thousands of passengers worldwide in a move the government said threatened the national economy, has said he is optimistic of a resolution by the deadline.

"I continue to be hopeful that we can reach agreement," he said last week, adding that discussions with the three unions -- representing pilots, engineers and ground staff such as baggage handlers -- were confidential.

But the Transport Workers' Union warned there was little prospect of a deal by Monday, with chief Tony Sheldon saying Qantas had failed to put forward a better offer in the weeks since the grounding.

Sheldon said the union had formally requested a 21-day extension to the talks last Wednesday but was yet to hear from Qantas.

"Give it another 21 days and start negotiating in good faith, not in bad faith, where you stood over the judiciary, the public and the Australian workforce just so you could outsource their jobs overseas," Sheldon said on Sunday.

"Negotiate in good faith because you have not shown it in the past 21 days."

Sheldon added that the TWU would take "every legal action we can" to ensure workers' rights were protected, including a court appeal similar to that lodged earlier this month by the pilots' union against the banning of all strikes.

Industrial relations expert Ron McCallum, emeritus professor at Sydney University's Law School, said he would be surprised if all matters, including wages, working conditions and job security, could be addressed by negotiation.

"I would think that while some matters may be settled there will be outstanding matters at the end of this time and that those outstanding matters at the very least will go to arbitration," he told AFP.

Qantas and the unions can take a further 21 days for negotiations if they fail to reach agreement by Monday, but all parties must agree to the extension -- a prospect seen as unlikely by analysts.

Instead Fair Work Australia, which the government called in to resolve the dispute, will likely bring the parties into binding arbitration, a process which would involve the tribunal hearing the arguments of both sides in detail.

"You won't get an answer until after Christmas," McCallum said.

Labour law expert Professor Andrew Stewart, from Adelaide University, said the row was likely headed to lengthy arbitration, even if agreement was reached on some elements.

"We would expect it to take months, based on prior experience," Stewart said.

At the heart of the dispute is the concern by Qantas workers that their jobs will be outsourced to Asia as the company pins the revival of its international business on taking advantage of its proximity to the fast-growing market.

Joyce has argued the company needs to be nimble enough to respond to market challenges and warned that too many restrictions on the iconic airline could bring it down.

But the unions fear the issue of "offshoring by stealth" will also destroy the 90-year-old carrier which has a reputation for safety.

Joyce shut down the airline on October 29 as unions threatened to step up strikes, saying rolling stoppages by engineers and ground staff had already caused forward bookings to collapse.

He took the drastic decision to lock out employees, forcing him to ground all Qantas flights.

Pilots have challenged the lock-out in the Federal Court but McCallum said this was unlikely to have any bearing on the arbitration.

"The other court hasn't stayed the proceedings. It hasn't said stop until we decide," he said.

Stewart said Qantas had taken a gamble in taking the case to the tribunal, but as long as it was dealing with the matter all strike action by the unions was stopped, providing it with certainty over the upcoming holiday period.

"It may well be correct to say that Fair Work Australia is more likely than not to take a hands-off attitude towards some of the issues that are in dispute between the parties -- but it's not cut and dried," he said.

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