Freighter fleet to double in 20 years

Helped by the demand for goods and the regional economic boom, the freighter fleet in the Middle East is expected to double in the next 20 years, along with a projected increase in global fleet for freighters.

The global air cargo market is expected to triple its growth over the next two decades, averaging 5.8 per cent annually and with the freighter fleet nearly doubling in size to 3,892 aircraft from the current 1,948 freighters, according to Boeing.

Boeing said the growth rate will mean that a total of 3,358 freighters will enter the fleet, assuming that 1,414 freighters are retired.

The Middle East region will invest more than $260 billion (Dh954bn) in 20 years to expand its air fleet and a significant number of planes will be dedicated for the freight business given the demand for fast deliveries in the region.

While the Middle East is experiencing a slowdown in growth for air freight, it continues to outperform the industry. The International Air Transport Association (Iata) forecasts the air freight industry growth to fall from last year's 4.8 per cent to about four per cent this year, while the regional air freight is expecting to grow by an average of eight per cent compared to 10 per cent last year.

"The current slowdown in air freight does not dampen the hopes this region has in expanding its air freight business. The effect is insignificant and we hope that faster growth will be regained in the coming years," said Peter Sedgley, Senior Vice-President for Cargo at Emirates Skycargo.

At the recently concluded Farnborough air show in the United Kingdom, Middle East airlines placed the highest number of orders, including those by Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways, Fly Dubai and Qatar Airways.

According to Boeing, future global freighter fleet additions will include 863 new freighters, with a value of about $206bn, and 2,495 freighters converted from passenger aircraft. Wide-body freighters will dominate the new production freighter total with 641 aircraft having more than 80 tonnes of payload capacity.

More than 60 per cent of the fleet additions will be in the medium wide-body category with payloads of 40 to 80 tonnes. "A shift towards larger freighters and new, more efficient airplanes will help keep air cargo transport affordable," Boeing said.

Freighters will continue to comprise about 10 per cent of the world jetliner fleet, but they will be larger, and dedicated freighters will make up 54 per cent of air cargo capacity by 2027, added Boeing.

Asia-Pacific is expected to lead investments in fleet expansions with over $1.9 trillion expected to be injected into fleet expansion programmes in the next 20 years, followed by North America with investments worth $740bn, while Europe and the Common Wealth of Independent States will make a combined investments of $810bn.

Sustained growth of world trade and global GDP will drive a 5.8 percent average annual increase in air cargo traffic, consistent with past trends. New air trade routes will reach out to under-served places.

"The global economy demands rapid and reliable business-to-business exchange. Air cargo transport makes it possible. Manufacturers depend on air freight services for efficient just-in-time inventory management. Air freighters enable the most economical sourcing of components and assemblies," said Des Vertannes, Etihad Crystal Cargo's Executive Vice-President for Cargo, stressing the need for airfreight in promoting economic growth.

"Air transport sustains many developing world economies by making it possible to ship perishable products such as fresh flowers, fruit, and live animals to distant markets," added Vertannes. The tonne-kilometre cost and range advantages of large freighters will enable air carriers to meet demand on high-growth trade lanes, particularly links to Asia.

Manufacturers have also predicted that airplanes in 2027 will be more productive with each carrying about 40 per cent more traffic.