Probe to impact markets

The police investigation into alleged financial irregularities by top executives at mortgage lender Tamweel and developer Nakheel will cast a shroud of uncertainty tinged with gloom on the stock markets this week.

The latest round follows similar probe into Deyaar Development and Dubai Islamic Bank earlier this year. "Isolated bad news has a way of snowballing into a negative sentiment and we expect property stocks to take a further hit on the Dubai exchange this week," said a trader on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange on condition of anonymity.

Nakheel has denied any "embezzlement", while Tamweel has confirmed simply that an investigation is under way. Istithmar World, a subsidiary of Dubai World, has also confirmed that the roles of two senior employees are being investigated for possible financial irregularity while they were employed with another company. The company is Tamweel.

"The Deyaar investigation earlier this year caused a run on the company's stock, with a contagion effect on other property stocks. Last week's news will extend the weakness and Dubai can be expected to test the 4,700-points level," the Abu Dhabi-based trader said.

After a torrid first half of August, investors' hopes that equities will rebound are likely to be shattered this week. The most that traders would probably settle for is a week of consolidation.

Last week, both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi bourses suffered their largest one-day declines since January and although the capital's index is now on a two-session winning streak, it is unlikely to escape a similar malaise to the one engulfing Dubai. The ADX lost five per cent last week, while the Dubai Financial Market fared little better, dropping 4.43 per cent and will open today on 5,018 points.

"[We expect] range-bound trading for the next month," said Julian Bruce, EFG-Hermes director of institutional equity sales.

Emaar will again be key to Dubai's fortunes. The property giant slipped to an 12-month intraday low of Dh9.58 that triggered Wednesday's 2.6 per cent rebound, but this gave way to more selling the day after, meaning Emaar will open on Dh9.66 today and down 35 per cent in 2008. Tamweel will also be under selling pressure.

Aldar Properties will dominate trading on the ADX. The developer is a couple of percentage points below its foreign ownership limit of 40 per cent and will see more buying this week because it is held by a significant number of different investment vehicles.