To persuade bears that stocks really did hit a bottom during their long summer of discontent, optimists need the market to clear some major hurdles in the next eight weeks, historically its roughest stretch of the year.
As trading volume swells after US Labour Day – for Wall Street, the official end of summer – the well-tanned and well-rested will have to grapple anew with an ongoing credit crisis, a frustratingly uncertain economic outlook and a presidential race that's heading into the home stretch.
August marked the first monthly rise for the S&P 500 in three months. But because the gains were booked on thin trading volume, it looks hasty to say the selling tide has turned.
The real test, investors say, will come in September and October, typically the worst months of the year for the Dow industrials and S&P 500.
While stocks have staged some modest rallies this month, investors fear it's going to be tough for the broader market to shake its habit of underperformance in autumn.
For one thing, credit markets are telling an altogether different story. Credit spreads have widened even as much-maligned banking and financial stocks have bounced. What's more, the future for mortgage market linchpins Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the twin sources for much of the summer's rocky ride, remains highly uncertain.
Overall S&P 500 earnings estimates for the third quarter are fast eroding. And while oil prices are below their July peaks, they are still uncomfortably high for consumers and businesses.
On top of that, there's the US presidential election, which heats up after Labour Day, which could add to volatility.