French growth in 2008 not likely to top 1%

French economic growth is unlikely to be greater than one per cent for 2008, according to a poll of eight analysts, with some analysts saying that the country could enter into a recession.

The average outcome from the eight analysts gives growth of one per cent for 2008 and 1.1 per cent for 2009.

At the end of July, a Reuters poll of 14 analysts gave an average forecast of 1.6 per cent growth for 2008 and 1.4 per cent for 2009. The global credit crisis has led to fears of recession in the United States and other leading economies. A recession is usually defined as two successive quarters of negative growth.

Fears of a French recession grew earlier this month when official data showed that the country's economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter of 2008 as a weak rise in consumer spending failed to compensate for lower investment and foreign trade.

"A technical recession in the French economy, that's to say two consecutive quarters of negative growth, is possible," said Credit Agricole economist Olivier Bizimana.

The government has spoken of an economic slowdown, rather than a recession.