These days, even a leather armchair and hot-dog-sized cigar won't calm Wall Street's jittery workers.

"The mood is not good," drawls one corporate lawyer through a sweet cloud of cigar fumes at Barclay-Rex, an upscale tobacconist near the New York Stock Exchange.

"There are so many worries over the economy – oil prices, the banking industry – yes, there's a lot of concern," says the lawyer, who, like others at Barclay-Rex, one of New York's few public smoking havens, asked not to be identified.

The world's financial capital has been cushioned from the economic slump across the rest of the United States. But now the glitziest US city faces a spectacular fall. The state government this week predicted a $26 billion hole in the budget over the next three years and said recession was already under way. "Harsh" times beckon, warns state Governor David Paterson.

They could be especially tough for the finance sector clustered in the skyscraper canyons around Wall Street on the southern tip of Manhattan. The industry lost a record $22.4 billion in the first quarter of 2008, double of already record losses notched up last year.

Of the 188,000 people employed in the sector in 2007, about 25,000 are expected to lose their jobs, New York's state accountancy office says. Bonuses – slices of profits dolled out annually to employees – are forecast to plummet by 20.5 per cent.

The turmoil, which has seen Bear Stearns bank collapse and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac seek government rescue, is at the root of pain afflicting homeowners and businesses across the country. Nowhere is more exposed than New York itself.

The city, like the state, relies heavily on taxing big earners. The bear market is already emptying government coffers, meaning fewer police, less infrastructure work, and other cutbacks.

Regular New Yorkers have little sympathy for traders who may miss out on their million-dollar bonuses at the end of this year.

Michael Platt, who runs an atmospheric wine shop just off Wall Street, said the money flowing through the district has already stopped trickling down.

"There's very little being done by those people – less gift-giving, less parties," Platt, 41, said.

"You know why? Greed. People are more greedy. They don't give. Instead of corporate gifts, they do the opposite: squeeze more and more from people, while giving less and less."

Independent economist Joel Naroff said that although Wall Street is at the heart of the nation's economic downturn, many high-fliers will escape punishment – and even thrive.

"Wall Street is the source of the problem you see across the country. It rose out of the financial sector, which spread into the housing sector," Naroff said.

"The thing to keep in mind is that Wall Street is extraordinarily resilient. It will come back. The only question is when? There will be extraordinary opportunities for some."

Another denizen of the wood-paneled smoking room at Barclay-Rex, a cigar-chomping insurance broker, agreed.

"I'm worried by what's coming," he said gloomily. "But this is an opportunity for the talented to get ahead. The less talented will be weeded out."