A bull-run on the UAE bourses will begin only when companies start to announce their first quarter results by mid-April, say analysts.
“We are not going to see any rebound happening on the Dubai bourse as the month is set to end. However, we expect a revival and more activity only after the first week of April,” said Al Futtaim HC Securities dealing room manager Sherif Abdul Khalek.
Expectations are for a rebound in the near future as the Dubai market has lacked the impetus it saw towards the end of 2007, Shuaa Capital said in a report. However, with the index around its lowest levels for nearly six months, the value available to international and retail investors alike should stimulate a rebound, it said.
According to analysts, fair value of most of the shares on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) is higher than a market value and it is a time for accumulation.
Shares of Emaar Properties closed lower at Dh11.25 on Thursday, down two per cent compared to closing on March 23. According to Emaar Chairman Mohamed Ali Alabbar, the net asset value of the group, including the fair value of the land, real estate and market value of listed associates, increased 46 per cent from Dh11.6 per share in 2006 to Dh16.9 per share as at end of 2007.
“The trading volume in value terms has been quite low compared to an average of Dh2 billion in the past 50 to 100 days. We expect to see a similar volume in the first week of April,” said Michael Judge, technical analyst at Emaar Financial Services.
“High net-worth individuals and large investors are currently bullish about the market, said an Abu Dhabi-based broker. The banking and real estate stocks will be in demand on the Abu Dhabi bourse. Sorouh Real Estate and Aldar Properties look promising, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and First Gulf Bank are expected to steal the limelight.
“The markets will move together,” Khalek added.
Bull run only after first quarter results