Not so many weeks ago, if the head of Opec had caught a cold the price of oil would have spiked to yet another record high. The rises seemed relentless sparking genuine concern that prices could go past $200 a barrel.
But something strange has happened. Last week BP, the oil major, shut down three pipelines running through Georgia, reducing global production by over one million barrels a day. At a stroke 1.4 per cent of the global supply of oil was switched off. Two months ago that would have led to carnage on the trading floors of energy firms and, unlike many recent panics, their concern would have been justified. Russia does not want oil and gas from the Caspian being routed through Georgia to Europe – it wants those pipelines on its territory to further consolidate its control of European energy supplies.
If that is not cause for a rise in oil prices what is? But despite the clear long-term danger posed by the Russian invasion and the short-term shock of shutting down Caspian production, the price of oil fell.
The day BP stopped pumping the price of oil fell from $114 a barrel to $113. It is probably too early to say whether this heralds the end of the long bull run for commodity prices but it certainly hints that a major change is taking place.