This newspaper has been running an online debate about whether Emirates will become the largest airline in the world. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the airline industry's trade body, Emirates was the seventh largest international carrier last year with just over 20 million passengers. Ryanair, the European budget carrier, was the largest with 49 million and it will grow to about 58 million passengers this year – so Emirates will have to double in size to challenge it.
The delivery last week of the first of 58 A380s certainly makes that target viable as Emirates is adding capacity at a rate no other carrier can match. The Dubai-based airline has a fleet of 120 aircraft now, which puts it in a similar league to Qantas and Cathay Pacific, but has a further 250 on order and options on dozens more.
However, there is a big difference between being the biggest "international" airline and the biggest overall. That honour goes to Southwest Airlines, which flies more than 100 million passengers a year but has not a single international route. On the list of overall largest, Emirates was ranked only 28th last year. It will have to increase in size fivefold to challenge Southwest and I cannot see that happening in the medium term. Still, Emirates should not be disheartened if this goal is out of reach. A more important target is being simply the "best" airline in the world.