Exodus of middle aged to suburbia

Suburbia is boring, uncool and where parents live. For young people, it is something to be escaped, like school. In the United States there are entire cities that comprise nothing but suburbs and perhaps the endless, nauseating tedium of these places is at the root of many American problems. I'm sure the lack of stimulation in America's vast suburbia breeds a culture of binge eating and spending as nobody can think of anything else to do.

Dubai appears to be going in the opposite direction. Its young population, and the young foreign professionals attracted to the city, demand a more urban environment, which has encouraged developers to focus on impressive glass and steel towers rather than dull rows of detached houses that spread miles into the desert.

But no matter how many urban towers are built, the call of suburbia is relentless. Young professionals become middle aged and married with children and suddenly 50 square metres of space on the 22nd floor of a tower block loses its appeal. And so it is that people who swore they would never set foot in suburbia when they were 20 find themselves scanning property websites looking for three bedrooms and a garden when they are 35.

This is a phenomenon that is as prevalent in the developing world as it is in the developed. Human beings are aspirational creatures and they always want better for themselves and for their children. They want to live in safer communities; they want more space, a garden, and a garage for a car. In seriously deprived parts of the world the ambitions are more modest: a home with solid walls rather than corrugated iron, running water, a toilet and electricity – but the dream is still the same.

This trend towards suburbanisation is currently seen most clearly in China. The Chinese economy is growing and people are getting richer so they are no longer willing to settle for a horrible, one-room apartment in a crumbling concrete block; they aspire to something bigger, nicer and something that will not fall down. They want the classic suburban lifestyle.

As a result, farmland around Chinese cities is disappearing at a staggering rate and being replaced by housing. Many of the land deals are horribly corrupt and local bureaucrats have become millionaires as properties are flipped over and over again by developers and their cronies.

The process of Chinese suburbanisation has also had an affect that goes far beyond the country's own borders. The sudden conversion of so much agricultural land to residential space has helped to drive up the price of food globally and the construction boom has also caused a surge in commodity prices.

The quantities of raw material that are needed to sustain China's housing boom are also huge. One single square metre of residential space requires 75 kilogrammes of steel to reinforce the concrete and each tonne of steel requires 1,600kg of iron ore, 600kg of metallurgical coal and 7kg of manganese to make.

According to BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, China can expect to add 40 billion square metres of floor space over the next two decades as its population grows wealthier and aspires to live in larger homes. That translates into three billion tonnes of steel, which will cost more than $2 trillion (Dh7.34trn) at current prices.

I expect the Gulf will see a similar suburbanisation trend. Developers have spent a lot of time creating enormous tower blocks and amazing fantasy islands but I hear from many expatriates that there is a lack of "family" (read suburban) housing.

Suburban communities in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have become highly sought after and prices are going crazy. One expatriate told me recently that his five-bedroom suburban home had doubled in price over the past couple of years.

The young professionals who have been attracted to the Gulf for job opportunities will get older, get married, and have children. When they do so, they will start looking for suburban homes and if they cannot find them, they will return to countries. So, once the property developers get tower mania out of their systems, I expect the next Gulf construction boom will found in suburbia. It is incredible to think that the suburbanisation of China and the Middle East will be an important engine of world growth in the future but no matter how significant suburbs are for the global economy one thing will not change: the suburbs will still be uncool.

The writer is a Business Correspondent for The Times of London.