Yemen turmoil could stall effort to close Guantanamo

Turmoil in Yemen and the warnings of attacks that prompted the United States to shut diplomatic missions across the Middle East could hinder President Barack Obama's plans to close Guantanamo Bay prison.

Obama's plan to restart the repatriation of Yemeni inmates, a large group at the prison, is coming under increasing scrutiny because of the recent focus on the country as a hotbed of al Qaeda activity.

A U.S. senator involved in the debate over closing Guantanamo warned against transferring prisoners to Yemen, and an Obama administration official acknowledged that "current conditions will necessarily factor into that evaluation" of whether any detainees should be sent back to Yemen.

"It's not likely to happen" in the near future said Daniel Green, an expert on Yemen at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The prison houses 166 detainees who were rounded up in counter-terrorism operations since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Of those, 86 have been deemed to pose no threat to the United States and cleared for transfer or release. Fifty-six of those are from Yemen, and Obama was expected to begin sending them home soon after he lifted a moratorium on transfers to Yemen in May.

But al Qaeda's regional wing, known as AQAP, keeps raising its head in Yemen, causing concern for U.S. officials who fear that released prisoners could eventually join up with Islamist militants.

"Since it's now well-known that Yemen-based al Qaeda is actively plotting against us, I don't see how the president can honestly say any detainee should be transferred to Yemen," said Senator Saxby Chambliss, the ranking Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

"Sending them to countries where al Qaeda and its affiliates operate and continue to attack our interests is not a solution," Chambliss said in a statement.

Al Qaeda seems to have regrouped since last year when it was driven out of towns in southern Yemen that it had captured.

It is now resorting to hit-and-run operations against senior officers or military installations and the government said on Wednesday it had uncovered a plot to seize two major oil and gas export terminals and a provincial capital in the east of the country.

Yemen has been the main focus of concern that al Qaeda may be planning attacks in August. One of the reasons that the United States closed embassies across the Middle East and Africa was intercepted communication between al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate and al Qaeda's top leadership abroad.

"Al Qaeda is still quite strong in Yemen ... and in general, a fair number of detainees who have been repatriated have rejoined the fight," said Green, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.