Now that we have just passed the first quarter of Premier League fixtures, it seems an opportune moment to review and make some predictions. A lot will change between now and May. Managers’ heads will roll, that is almost certain, especially given that the league has become a sporting soap opera. Fans now have the patience of spoilt emperors. But that is all part of the fun.
It is hard to make an argument against Arsenal being crowned back to back champions. They are by far the most consistent team in the league, with extremely stable foundations. It is always the attacking football that draws the most plaudits, and that is fair. But the collective defensive operation that Mikel Arteta has created at Arsenal is seriously impressive. It is just so difficult to score against them. A consistent attacking unit remains their only concern. However, an impenetrable defence is often more successful than a free flowing attack. Champions.
It is perhaps more difficult to name their biggest challengers. Over the first months of the season several pretenders have raised their hands only to trip over their boots soon after. Manchester City remain the most talent packed squad in the league, and on paper they should be Arsenal’s closest rivals. But paper means very little. Losing both Guardiola and Rodri in the same summer was a double barrelled shot to the heart of the club. One of the game’s greatest coaches and one of its greatest players, gone at once. Maresca is a young coach with potential, but this is a demanding league with little patience. Pressure builds faster than time is granted.
Brighton are the fairytale story of the season and after ten games it is starting to look like the shoe fits. Fabian Hürzeler has been building this team over the past few seasons, and what a remarkable job he has done. They operate on a budget that is a fraction of their rivals and yet they often look more luxurious in their play. The title is a bridge too far, and they will go through difficult spells as the season progresses, but Champions League qualification should be firmly in their sights.
The other big clubs are all suffering from teething issues, some more than others. I like Liverpool’s chances the most. I am a fan of their new coach Iraola and I think they look the most likely to mount a charge for the top. But a lot of dominoes would have to fall into place for them to be genuine contenders. Chelsea seem like they will need to practice patience with Xabi Alonso, who will need time to build a squad that bears his stamp. And Manchester United, the less said the better. The only race they appear to be involved in is the title of first manager to be sacked.
My top four: Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea.
Now, who is destined for the drop? Such is the disparity of quality between the Premier League and the Championship, the newly promoted teams face a monumental challenge to remain. And history is not kind. Almost half of all promoted clubs since 1992 have been relegated in their first season. In both 2023-24 and 2024-25, all three promoted clubs went straight back down. The trapdoor rarely stays shut.
And despite fairly encouraging starts, all three promoted sides will be in a relegation dogfight. Hull in particular have surprised a few people. But the Premier League has a way of correcting those early illusions. And I sense that the London based sluggers Crystal Palace and Fulham will be right there swinging alongside them. Fulham are goal shy, with new striker Gonzalo Garcia struggling badly to find the back of the net, a problem that is bleeding pressure on their defence. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, lost their most prized asset this summer in Oliver Glasner, and life without him already feels considerably bleaker. As we touched on at the start, the managerial merry go round will have a significant impact on who goes down. My three: Crystal Palace, Hull and Ipswich. No Frank Lampard bias here.
Away from the table, the individual honours promise to be as fiercely contested as the title race itself.
With Arsenal the overwhelming favourites to retain the title, the Player of the Season will likely emerge from their ranks. Much of the credit for Arsenal’s success is rightly directed at their defensive collective, a unit that functions as a single organism. But individual awards demand individual brilliance, and for me there is one man who rises above the rest. Martin Odegaard. The captain. The playmaker. The man who makes Arsenal tick. In a team built on structure and discipline, he is the spark of spontaneity. My Player of the Season.
For the Young Player of the Season, which allows us to stray a little more off piste. A couple of early contenders have already caught the eye. Johan Manzambi looks entirely at home in the Premier League, with two goals and three assists in six starts for Aston Villa. Brighton’s young core also deserve a mention, with Yasin Ayari starting brilliantly in midfield and Luka Vuskovic looking hugely impressive in central defence. But I am going to take a punt on Jeremy Jacquet, the 21 year old centre back who arrived from Rennes this summer and already looks ready to lead the Liverpool defence for the next decade. He looks more vital than the evergreen Van Dijk, and that is perhaps the biggest compliment I can pay.
We will find out how accurate these predictions prove to be when May arrives. Nothing is decided in the first quarter of a season, and this league has a habit of making fools of those who speak too soon. The title, the drop, the golden boot, the sack — all still very much up for grabs. Buckle up. It is going to be quite a ride.