Abu Dhabi: Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Managing Director and Group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Chairman of Masdar and Executive Chairman of XRG, today said that renewed infrastructure investment and an absolute commitment to freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are needed to enhance global energy resilience.
Speaking with the Atlantic Council, Dr. Al Jaber called for investment across the value chain to strengthen the global energy economy. As part of this plan, the company is moving forward with a new phase of world-scale project execution, including accelerating construction of a second pipeline to double export capacity through Fujairah Port, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
"Right now, too much of the world's energy still moves through too few chokepoints. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait. And it is why we moved ahead with our second pipeline in 2025. Today it is already 50 percent complete, and we are accelerating delivery toward 2027."
Dr. Al Jaber said ADNOC remained committed to its $150 billion (Dh551 billion) five-year capital expenditure (CAPEX) programme to enhance its operations, drive growth and meet global energy demand. "As a sector, we are dangerously underinvested. Upstream investment is sitting at around $400 billion (Dh1.4 trillion) a year, which barely offsets natural decline rates. Global spare capacity is around 3 million barrels a day. It should be closer to 5. And in just two months, the world drew-down around 250 million barrels from storage. We have 30 to 35 days of effective cover. We need to at least double that."
Dr. Al Jaber explained how the current conflict had highlighted supply chain fragility for not only oil and gas, but also critical chemicals, minerals and fertilisers driving the world economy. "Hormuz is not just an oil story. It is an everything story. Think about it: we are talking LNG, jet fuel, fertiliser, aluminum, helium, critical minerals, plastics, consumer goods and general cargo. In other words, the entire supply chain of the modern global economy, from the food on your table, to the planes in the sky, to the chips in your phone. Fuel prices are up 30 percent, fertiliser is up 50 percent, airfares are up 25 percent. Every farm, factory and family is paying the price. And the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load.
"One stat that really stands out: Just over 80 days into this conflict and almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their economies."
Detailing the impact of the conflict on oil markets, Dr. Al Jaber noted that while ADNOC can ramp up its oil production in a matter of weeks, it will take four months for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to return to 80 per cent of pre-conflict levels and full flows will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027.
Dr. Al Jaber went on to renew calls for Iran to immediately cease disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and for global leaders to step up efforts to uphold freedom of navigation through the vital waterway. "This is not just an economic problem. It sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is finished. If we do not defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences."
Dr. Al Jaber explained how, despite the current conflict, the UAE's leadership has accelerated plans to deliver low-cost, low-carbon energy to customers around the world, supported by the "sovereign, strategic decision" to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in late April. That historic move was "made with clarity, conviction and confidence." He explained that the UAE wants "greater flexibility to invest, grow, expand, partner and create long-term value."
"With demand for oil staying well above 100mbpd into the 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces: the lowest cost, lowest carbon barrels out there. And now we will have the flexibility to place more crude with customers everywhere. At the same time, we in the UAE need more energy to move at the speed of our ambition. In particular, natural gas is increasingly strategic, not only for our business, but for power generation, AI infrastructure, manufacturing and economic growth."
Dr. Al Jaber explained that the UAE's decision to exit OPEC was not "a reaction or a rupture and not directed against anyone, or any institution" and the country will keep engaging and 'showing up for our friends and partners."
He went on to highlight how ADNOC is similarly diversifying its global investments beyond energy into AI infrastructure, data centers, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and critical minerals. Dr. Al Jaber noted the UAE-US relationship is critical to ADNOC's international plans, with the UAE remaining the US's largest export market in the Middle East for seventeen consecutive years.
"We have a strategic partnership across technology, investment, industry, energy, defense and of course much more. The UAE has invested more than $1 trillion (Dh3.67 trillion) in the United States with more to come over the next decade. Our energy investments alone through ADNOC, XRG and Masdar now total more than $85 billion (Dh312 billion) across 19 states. The UAE and the US aren't just trading partners; we are co-investors in the economy of the next century, and that is a partnership built on trust, not transactions."
Both ADNOC's domestic and international investment agenda's continue to draw support from ADNOC's resilient revenues, Dr. Al Jaber said, underpinned by decades of prudent investment in diversified infrastructure. "We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our customers shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia.
"We are also working with our partners, in particular, our Asian partners to expand and restock strategic storage to strengthen resilience against future shocks. And we continue to adapt our commercial strategy to ensure our products remain competitive, reliable and attractive to customers around the world. And honestly, the best proof of how we have adapted to the situation is in our results. Even in this environment, every one of our listed companies has achieved strong returns, many of them outperforming market expectations."
"That tells you something important about the robustness of our strategy, the strength of our business, and the strength of our nation. This whole experience showed the world who we truly are. People felt safe. The country kept moving. Energy kept flowing. Airports stayed open. Businesses continued to do business. Investor confidence remained very strong. In fact, we are now seeing a new wave of investors looking at the UAE more seriously, precisely because of how the country responded and because of their faith in our infrastructure, our systems and our resilience."
Dr. Al Jaber explained how recent events had revealed three critical lessons about resilience. "First, resilience matters a great deal. It may seem expensive, until the day you need it. And when you need it, it becomes priceless. Second, AI must be built in, not bolted on. In a crisis, the speed of insight and the speed of decision making is the difference between continuity and disruption. Third, energy security is no longer just about production. It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy."
"Resilience is not luck. It is what you built before the attack came. It is the air defense systems you invested in. It is the economic diversification you committed to. It is the partnerships based on trust. It is the social contract written fifty years ago when my country was founded: that everyone who builds here belongs here.
"The UAE was targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones. It was attacked for its model of development, a model based on coexistence, tolerance, economic openness and building bridges. The UAE was tested. And what the test revealed is that this country is more than a city skyline, more than oil reserves, more than a sovereign wealth fund. It is a model. And the model held. The world now knows better who we truly are."
Responding to a question about the potential of AI, Dr. Al Jaber noted that the world is still underestimating just how energy-intensive the AI revolution will be and the investment gap is getting wider.
"Global data center electricity demand is expected to double by the end of this decade to around 1,000 terawatt-hours. And nowhere is this accelerating faster than in the United States, where data centers could rise from around 5 percent of electricity demand today to nearly 15 percent by 2030. So, this is no longer just a technology conversation. It is an energy, infrastructure, capital and competitiveness conversation.
"In many ways, the AI race is an electron race. And countries that can provide reliable, scalable and affordable power will have a major strategic advantage. That is why we continue to emphasise the importance of reliable baseload energy."
Concluding, Dr. Al Jaber invited global energy leaders to convene in Abu Dhabi in November for ENACT Majlis and ADIPEC 2026 to align the global energy economy around principles of resilience.
Dr. Al Jaber's interview appeared on the Atlantic Council's AC Front Page Podcast, moderated by Helima Croft, Managing Director and the Head of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research at RBC Capital Markets. Episodes are available on the Atlantic Council's website.