Dubai: Union Bank of Switzerland (UBP) said Dubai’s residential property market showed greater resilience than expected in 2026, with relative price stability despite challenges affecting transaction activity.
In its report titled “Dubai Residential Real Estate: Better Resilient Than Expected So Far”, the bank said property prices had shown notable resilience compared with changes in transaction activity, reflecting the growing maturity of Dubai’s real estate market and the strength of the economic fundamentals supporting it.
The report said Dubai’s property market benefited from the strong economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic, which drove property prices and transaction levels to new record highs by the end of 2025.
The average price per square metre for residential properties in Dubai recorded a 10% correction from the beginning of 2026 to the end of June, with a significant difference between completed and off-plan properties.
Completed properties recorded a relatively limited correction of 2.4%, compared with 10.8% for off-plan properties, reflecting differing performance across segments and the greater price stability of completed homes.
Fahad Iqbal, Head of Investment Services at UBB, said the resilience in prices despite a decline in transaction activity was a positive indication of the market’s development, particularly given Dubai’s expanding economic base and the diversification of activities supporting property demand.
He said the resilience reflected the Dubai property market’s transition towards greater maturity, supported by an economy with a broader and deeper base than in previous years.
The report said changes in property prices and rents within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) were relatively greater than in the wider market but remained significantly less severe than the corrections recorded during previous property cycles.
The report also examined Dubai’s residential supply outlook, citing plans for approximately 350,000 homes to be delivered by 2030. However, it said actual deliveries were likely to fall short of those figures based on historical experience.
The impact of new supply on prices is also expected to vary between areas, given differences in locations and residential projects.
The bank concluded that the price resilience recorded in 2026 reflected improved fundamentals in Dubai’s real estate market and a greater ability to cope with challenges compared with previous cycles.
It also stressed the importance of continuing to monitor supply and demand developments in the coming period.