UAE government debt at a quarter of GDP: IMF

The UAE’s total government debt as a percentage of GDP is set to decline by 2.4 percentage points this year to 24.7 per cent, and further to 21.6 per cent of GDP in 2011, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) just released Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia.

According to IMF statistics, the UAE’s government debt averaged 6.3 per cent of GDP between 2000 and 2005, and peaked last year at 27.1 per cent of GDP, but has since declined, with further declines in the future.

While Saudi Arabia’s government debt averaged the most historically, at 77.3 per cent of GDP between 2000 and 2005, it is projected to decline to 12.9 per cent of GDP in 2010 and to 11 per cent in 2011.

Qatar’s government debt (2000-05 average: 41.6 per cent of GDP) is reckoned at 27.2 per cent of GDP in 2010, declining to 22.5 per cent next year.

The IMF reckons that, at 5.7 and 6.5 per cent of GDP, respectively, Oman and Kuwait have the lowest government debt among GCC peers while government debt of Bahrain is the highest among GCC countries, at 32.8 per cent of GDP (2011 estimate: 29.9 per cent).

Projected at almost 140 per cent of GDP, Bahrain’s total gross external debt in 2010 is also the highest among Gulf countries, followed by Qatar (80.6 per cent of GDP), the UAE (53.1 per cent), Kuwait (46.2 per cent), Saudi Arabia (22.6 per cent) and Oman (15.4 per cent), according to IMF data.

While gross external debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to fall in most GCC countries, including in the UAE, it is expected to rise in marginally in Bahrain.
Within the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan (MENAP) region, Lebanon has the highest government debt (139 per cent of GDP) as well as highest gross external debt at 160.3 per cent of GDP, and reckoned to grow to 161.9 per cent of GDP in 2011.

Total Government Debt (per cent of GDP)

                       Avg       2006    2007   2008     2009     2010*    2011*
                 2000-05  

MENAP        63.7       45.3      39.5    36.0      39.7       35.6       34.1

Bahrain       31.9       23.6      19.2    14.7      26.6       32.8       29.9

Kuwait         25.2       8.3         6.7      5.7        7.7         6.5          6.0

Oman           18.3       9.6         7.5      5.0       7.8          5.7          4.3

Qatar            41.6       13.1      9.2      11.6     36.7        27.2       22.5

KSA              77.3       27.3      18.5    13.2     16.0        12.9       11.0

UAE              6.3         9.4         9.8      15.5     27.1        24.7       21.6

Source: IMF; *Projection

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Total Gross External Debt (percent of GDP)

                       Avg       2006    2007   2008     2009     2010*    2011*
                 2000-05  

MENAP       34.4         32.2     35.5     30.5      35.7       30.5       29.4

Bahrain       48.0         53.4     139.3  153.3    157.7     139.6    139.8

Kuwait         28.1         30.4     50.2    40.9       58.5       46.2      43.4

Oman           23.3         15.5     17.2    15.2       18.9      15.4       13.3

Qatar            60.1         43.5     51.8   53.5        89.3      80.6       70.4

KSA              11.7         11.9     19.7   17.5        23.0      22.6       22.1

UAE              24.8         46.0     63.0   53.4        57.0      53.1       49.4

Source: IMF; *Projection

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