World oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.60 mb/d in 2018, representing growth of 1.59 mb/d, 60 thousand barrels per day higher than the previous month’s projections and mainly reflecting the positive economic outlook, according to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for February.
''World oil demand growth in 2017 was estimated to increase by 1.60 mb/d, representing an upward adjustment of some 30 tb/d compared to last month’s projections, mainly to reflect the continuing better-than-expected data in OECD Europe in 3Q17. Total world oil demand stood at 97.01 mb/d in 2017. Demand for OPEC crude in 2017 was estimated to stand at 32.8 mb/d, some 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2016 level. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.9 mb/d, slightly higher than the 2017 level,'' the MOMR said.
Cumulatively, between 2015 and 2017, the world has added around 5 mb/d of demand for oil products on the back of healthy economic conditions globally and a relatively steady product price environment.
''Middle East oil demand growth flipped into positive territory in 2017, with the two regions adding a combined 0.13 mb/d, on the back of an uptick in economic conditions in Brazil, along with firm growth in some countries in Middle East,'' the report added.
For 2018, it continued, the major assumptions accounted for in the oil demand forecast include: a steady rise in global economic activities, which are projected to increase by 3.8% y-o-y; transportation fuels – namely gasoline, jet fuel and diesel oil – are anticipated to provide the bulk of growth in 2018, propelled by steady vehicle sales in the US, China and India; and capacity additions as well as expansions in petrochemical sector projects, which are expected to provide support to light distillates requirements, mainly in the US, and to a lesser extent in China.