Non-Opec oil to stagnate

Non-Opec oil supplies are expected to stagnate in 2009, heightening concerns they are nearing their peak as low crude prices and scarce credit slows efforts to replace output from rapidly maturing fields.

Producers outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) are forecast to increase output by just 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 50.04 million bpd in 2009, a poll of analysts, banks and industry groups showed.

The latest 2009 consensus is down from an earlier poll in November, which forecast 2009 non-Opec supply growth at around 400,000 bpd.

"We think that non-Opec supply will increase only marginally in the next few years, with new projects largely offset by high decline rates," said Giovanni Serio, Executive Director of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

"Should oil prices remain under pressure for a prolonged period of time, capital expenditure in the industry could be further constrained, threatening new projects as well," he added.

New supplies brought online to meet almost 25 years of global oil demand growth have also had to supplant output declines from large mature fields.

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