Telecom firms and banks likely to be top Q4 performers
Listed telecom companies and banks in the UAE could be the top performers in corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2009 going by the estimates of several investment analysis firms.
While banks, with the exception of ADCB, are expected to post encouraging profits for the same period, it was estimated that bellwether Emaar could be posting a profit in the range of Dh729 million to Dh855m for Q4.
Emirates Business has collated data on the profit estimate made by various investment analysis firms.
EFG-Hermes, Sico Investment Bank and Shuaa Capital have given profit estimates on Emaar in Q4. EFG-Hermes has estimated that Emaar net profit would be Dh729m, while Sico Investment Bank and Shuaa Capital forecast Dh855m and Dh699m, respectively, as against the property major's net loss of $1.77 billion (Dh6.5bn) in the corresponding period of 2008.
The estimates by investment firms indicated mixed pattern for Arabtec as HC Brokerage, Sico Investment Bank and Shuaa Capital forecast a drop in net profit, while EFG-Hermes holds positive results for it. After combining all the estimates, the Dubai-based construction major is projected to register an average of Dh172.43m net profit, showing a drop of 6.7 per cent from the corresponding period's net profit of 184.81m.
EFG-Hermes has estimated that Arabtec would post Dh196.30m net profit with a modest gain of 6.22 per cent for Q4. HC Brokerage forecasts Dh158.4m net profit, a net drop of 14.29 per cent. Shuaa Capital estimated Dh169m net profit, showing a net drop of 8.55 per cent.
Drake and Scull International (DSI) is estimated to post Dh87m net profit for Q4 as per the Sico Investment Bank forecast, while Shuaa Capital said that it would be Dh77.30m. Since DSI was listed on DFM in March 2009, the corresponding Q4 results were not available.
The UAE capital-based realty companies are expected to post higher growth in their net profits for the Q4.
Aldar Properties has been given forecast for an average net profit of Dh498.48m with a whopping gain of 491.32 per cent as against the Dh84.3m in the previous corresponding period.
EFG-Hermes forecasts that Aldar would post a net profit of Dh664m with 687.66 per cent gain from Q4 of 2008. HC Brokerage has estimated that it would be Dh640m with 659.19 per cent gain. Sico Investment Bank forecasts Dh527m net profit with a gain of 525.15 per cent. Prime Group estimated net profit of Aldar at Dh505m with a gain of 499.05 per cent, while Shuaa Capital has given a modest forecast of Dh156.40m with 85.53 per cent gain.
Another realty major Sorouh Real Estate is estimated to post an average net profit of Dh128.33m with a gain of 134.09 per cent as against the Dh54.82m in Q4 of 2008.
EFG-Hermes has given highest forecast of Dh181m net profit with a gain of 230.17 per cent in Q4 of 2009 and Sico Investment Bank estimated the net profit at Dh167m with a gain of 104.63 per cent, while HC Brokerage forecasts a modest Dh37m net profit that indicates a net fall of 32.51 per cent from the previous corresponding period net profit.
Telecom majors etisalat and du have emerged positive performers for the period in all the estimates.
The DFM-listed du is expected to register an average of Dh110.50m profit for Q4 as against Dh78.15m net profit in the previous corresponding period. EFG-Hermes forecasts Dh78m net profit with a 0.19 per cent gain over the previous figure. HC Brokerage is upbeat over the performance of du as it estimated a whopping 130 per cent gain for the period at Dh180m. Shuaa Capital projected a 13.88 per cent rise in the net profit of du at Dh89m, while Prime Group forecasts Dh95m with a gain of 21.56 per cent.
Etisalat is expected to post an average of 60.1 per cent rise in the net profit at Dh2.27bn for Q4 as against the Dh1.41bn in Q4 of 2008. Prime Group has given highest forecast for the telecom major as it estimated the net profit of etisalat at Dh2.48 with a gain of 75.6 per cent. EFG-Hermes estimated the net profit at Dh2.04bn with a rise of 44.3 per cent, while Shuaa Capital estimated at Dh2.28 bn with a gain of 61.5 per cent.
Combining all the forecasts, the average net profit estimated for Q4 of 2009 is at Dh106.80m indicating a net fall of 21.2 per cent, when compared with Dh135.5m in the previous corresponding period of 2008.
Only Prime Group forecasts net gain in the net profit of Air Arabia for Q4 of 2009. Air Arabia is likely to register Dh146m net profit with a gain of 7.8 per cent from the previous corresponding period.
EFG-Hermes has estimated that the Sharjah-based budget carrier would post Dh120m net profit with a drop of 11.4 per cent, HC Brokerage forecasts Dh89m net profit with 34.3 per cent fall, Shuaa Capital Dh83m with 38.8 per cent drop and Nomura Securities at Dh96m with 29.2 per cent fall.
Another logistics major Aramex is high among investment firms as HC Brokerage and Shuaa Capital estimated double-digit growth in the net profit for Q4, while EFG-Hermes forecasts 4.61 per cent drop in growth of net profit. The average net profit of Aramex is estimated to be Dh43m with a growth of 10.85 per cent from Dh38.79m net profit in Q4 of 2008. Shuaa Capital has estimated Dh43m net profit of Aramex and this marks a 10.85 per cent growth over the previous corresponding period's net profit. HC Brokerage forecasts that Aramex would post Dh49m net profit with 26.32 per cent gain, while EFG-Hermes estimates Dh37m net profit showing a net fall of 4.61 per cent.
Investment houses are upbeat over the performance of Emirates NBD during Q4 of 2009. The banking major posted Dh14.78m net profit for Q4 of 2008. Sico Investment has estimated that Emirates NBD would record Dh828m net profit for Q4 of 2009, while Al Mal Capital forecasts Dh656m and EFG-Hermes estimates Dh89m in the banking major's net profit.
Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) is expected to post encouraging results for Q4 of 2009 as the investment firms are upbeat over its performance. The average of net profit of all the forecasts stands at Dh196.67m. DIB registered a net profit of Dh1.44m during Q4 of 2008. EFG-Hermes has estimated that DIB would post Dh161m net profit for Q4, while Shuaa Capital forecasts Dh141m net profit and Prime Group estimates Dh288m net profit for the period.
Investment firms are positive about the performance of National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) during Q4 of 2009 as their average estimated net profit for the quarter stands at Dh865m, an increase of 75.81 per cent from Dh492m in the Q4 of 2008. HC Brokerage projected highest net profit of Dh1010m showing 105.28 per cent growth during the quarter, while Shuaa Capital's forecast of Dh694m was lowest among the estimates. Al Mal Capital has estimated the net profit of NBAD would be Dh873m with a rise of 77.44 per cent. Sico Investment Bank projected that NBAD would earn Dh859m with 74.59 per cent growth. Prime Group has estimated Dh995m with 102.24 per cent growth rate.
First Gulf Bank
The investment analysis firms have projected marginal growth in the net profit of First Gulf Bank (FGB) for Q4 of 2009. The average of net profit estimated by the five investment firms stands at Dh681.6m with an average growth rate of 1.52 per cent as against Dh671.38m in Q4 of 2008.
Al Mal Capital has estimated Dh577m net profit for Q4 of 2009 with a growth rate of 14.06 per cent. EFG-Hermes forecasts Dh746m net profit at 11.11 per cent growth.
HC Brokerage estimates that FGB would post Dh710m net profit for the quarter showing a rise of 5.75 per cent. Sico Investment Bank projected net profit of Dh662m with a modest growth of 1.40 per cent. Shuaa Capital estimated Dh713m net profit with 6.2 per cent growth.
The estimates indicate mixed trend for Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) performance during Q4 of 2009 as the difference of forecasts varying more than 200 per cent. EFG-Hermes and Shuaa Capital have projected net loss of ADCB during the quarter, while Al Mal Capital and HC Brokerage forecast net profit for the bank. The bank registered a net loss of Dh264.05m in Q4 of 2008.
Al Mal Capital has estimated Dh33m net profit and HC Brokerage forecasts Dh162m net profit for ADCB. EFG-Hermes forecasts Dh287m net loss and Shuaa Capital estimated Dh88m net loss of the bank for the quarter.
The two firms that have estimated the performance of Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (Adib) for Q4 of 2009 differed in their forecasts. EFG-Hermes forecasts Dh12m net loss, while HC Brokerage estimates DhDh245m net profit. ADIB registered Dh115.08m net profit for Q4 of 2008.
Dubai Financial Market (DFM) is expected to post net profit for Q4 of 2009. The average net profit estimated by investment firms stands at Dh89.2m as against a net loss of Dh175.68m in Q4 of 2008.
Shuaa Capital has estimated that the company would post Dh94m net profit for Q4 of 2009, while Prime Group forecasts Dh85m net profit.
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