China set to notch 11% GDP growth in first quarter

A top state-run think-tank has forecast that China will return to double digit growth this year, registering a 10 per cent rise in gross domestic product (GDP), state media reported yesterday.

The Centre for Forecasting Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences said GDP could grow by 11 per cent in the first quarter of the year, before slightly slowing down for the rest of 2010, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Investment was expected to increase as a result of the government's economic stimulus package, but overall growth in investment for the year would fall to 25 per cent, Xinhua quoted a report by the state-run institution as saying.

China's GDP, which analysts predict could overtake that of Japan, expanded by 8.7 per cent in 2009. It returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter last year, with a 10.7 per cent growth - the fastest in the past two years.

A government stimulus package worth ¥4 trillion (Dh2,152 billion) has widely been credited with sustaining growth in a year when much of the global economy was in crisis.

But inflation surged towards the end of 2009, sparking concern.

The report estimated that China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, would increase by more than three per cent in 2010 as an economic revival and liquidity helped drive up prices.

Exports, meanwhile, were expected to rise by nearly 17 per cent and imports by just under 19 per cent, it added, as overseas demand picked up amid a global economic recovery.

 

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