Crude exports by the UAE and other Middle East oil heavyweights are expected to double in 2030, while their gas sales will jump by more than six times, according to a prominent Western oil analyst.
From around 18 million barrels per day in 2005, the region’s total oil exports are projected to surge to more than 36 million bpd in 2030, said Noe van Hulst, Secretary-General of the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF). The rise will boost the Middle East’s share of world’s crude oil supplies to more than 30 per cent in 2030 from about 22 per cent in 2005, the Norwegian oil veteran told an oil conference in Mexico last week.
“The Middle East was the top oil supplier in 2005 and is expected to remain so in 2030,” he said in a speech sent to Emirates Business yesterday. Hulst gave no breakdown, but according to the US Energy Information Administration, Saudi Arabia will remain the dominant oil supplier, with its crude exports swelling to 17.1m bpd in 2030 from around nine million bpd in 2005.
Production by the UAE will rise from 2.5m to 4.6m bpd, while that of Kuwait will grow from 2.5m to 4.5m bpd. Iran’s output is forecast to increase from 4m bpd to 4.3m bpd, while output by war-torn Iraq is expected to surge from 2m to 5.5m bpd.
Hulst’s figures showed oil exports by transition economies, including Russia, would rise from around eight million bpd in 2005 to 12m million bpd in 2030, while exports by African countries, including Opec members – Algeria and Libya – would grow from around eight million bpd to nine million bpd.
As for oil imports, China and India are expected to record the highest growth, with imports surging from three million bpd to 13 million bpd and from around two million bpd to nearly six million bpd respectively.
The figures showed the Middle East gas exports would grow much faster than oil exports as they are projected to jump from around 50 billion cubic metres in 2005 to nearly 300bn cubic metres in 2030.
Most producers in the region have been locked in massive programmes to develop their gas sector for both export and growing domestic consumption.
Qatar has been involved in the biggest investment programme, pumping more than $100bn over the past 10 years into projects to tap its North Field. The projects have turned Qatar into the world’s top LNG exporter.
GCC crude exports set to double in 2030