The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) has unveiled a unique challenge for Arab nationals to enter the Arab Elite Forecasters Challenge with the aim to develop the right analysis and future forecasts for the most prominent global and regional geopolitical and economic events in the coming year.
The Arab Elite Forecasters Challenge aims at cultivating a cadre of independent elite forecasters with superior qualitative forecasting skills, which will help the Arab world to prepare their countries to progress into the future.
The first 1000 participants to apply for the challenge will be provided with training on how to become better forecasters and will be required to submit forecasts leading up to the ASF, which will be held on December 12, 2017 in Dubai, UAE.
Following which, the top 10 forecasters will be selected and invited to attend the exclusive Arab Strategy Forum and will be honoured with an award in the presence of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai.
His Excellency Mohammed Al Gergawi, Chairman of the Arab Strategy Forum, stated on the launch of the Elite Forecasters Challenge: “The Arab Strategy Forum was launched in 2001 with the goal to support leaders through knowledge-sharing, debate and forecasting in order to make informed decisions in terms of the opportunities and risks facing the Arab world in the near future.”
The Arab Elite Forecasters Challenge is a collaboration between the Arab Strategy Forum and The Good Judgment Project, a landmark study, which was co-founded by Professor Philip Tetlock, the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
Professor Tetlock led the study on the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. He is also the best-selling co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
His Excellency Mohammed Al Gergawi added, “The challenge will develop a culture of structured analytical thinking and will assist the Arab world to identify nationals with superior qualitative forecasting skills, which will help their countries progress into the future. ”
The top 10 winners will be joined by other forecasters to participate in advanced group forecasting and will also get training to refine and enhance their prediction capabilities.
Up to 150 of the highest-scoring participants will also be invited to an elite forecasting platform where they can further strengthen their forecasting skills and test their accuracy against Good Judgment’s Superforecasters, a highly exclusive group of individuals from around the world who have empirically verified superior skills in forecasting.
Professor Philip Tetlock welcomed the Arab Strategy Forum’s new challenge and said, “Forecasting is a skill that is worth cultivating and I commend the ASF for giving the Arab world an opportunity to test and improve their forecasting skills. I also look forward to seeing how the elite forecasters identified through this competition compare with the top forecasters described in Superforecasting (the book).”