Castrol Edge Calculator predicts Germany-Spain final

Following the shock exit of the Netherlands, one of the pre-tournament favourites, the Castrol Edge Calculator shows that Germany is now most likely to face Spain in the UEFA Euro 2012 final.

Going into the tournament, the Netherlands was most likely to make it to the final to take on the reigning champions Spain in a repeat of the closely fought 2010 Fifa World Cup final. But now, following the Dutch team’s failure to win a single game,  Germany are favourite to take on Spain, but the match is set to be a one-sided affair, with Joachim Löew’s men having just a 37% chance of winning the match and tournament.

As eight nations move from the group phase into the critical knock out stages, the Calculator has analysed past and UEFA Euro 2012 team performances to show which teams will have the mental and physical strength to progress now that extra time and penalty shoot-outs could come into play.

The Castrol Edge Calculator reveals:

• Spain is likely to see off fierce rivals Portugal in the semi-Final with a 68% chance of progressing. Portugal’s strong performances have seen Cristiano Ronaldo’s team exceed expectations and progress out of Group B – the group of death – at the expense of the Netherlands who were tipped to top the group

• France’s strong performances have also seen them progress out of the group – something that they weren’t tipped to do at the start of the tournament – but they will find themselves struggling to overcome  Group C winners Spain in the quarter-Final, exiting the competition at this stage (34% chance of victory)

• England’s chances of making it to the semifinals have increased slightly after their performances in the group stages saw them finish top of their group. Roy Hodgson’s men now have a 61% chance of progressing through their quarter-final tie against Italy, compared to 58% going into the competition. Victory would see them set up a semi-final clash with old rivals Germany

• Germany’s route to the semifinal is set to be the easiest with a 74% chance of beating 2004 winners Greece, but to make it to the final they will face a tougher test from England, in what is set to be the most closely fought match of the knock-out stage (Germany have a 52% chance of victory)

First launched for the 2010 Fifa World Cup where it accurately predicted nearly 70% of teams’ progression, Castrol Edge has applied the same expertise they apply to the development of their strongest ever oil to create the Calculator – using the latest technology and data analysis techniques to identify which nations have the strongest chance of success at UEFA Euro 2012.

Created by the same team of Castrol Edge Performance Analysts behind the Castrol Edge Rankings and the UEFA Euro 2012 Castrol Edge Index, they calculate the attack and defence ratings of each nation. Then by simulating the tournament over 100,000 times, the Calculator can predict how successful nations will be in each match, progressing through the knock out stages, and ultimately each nation’s chance of winning the tournament.

Fans can find the Castrol Edge Calculator at castroledge.com/euro2012, where it will be updated after each UEFA Euro 2012 match so they can see the impact of every result on their nation’s chances as the tournament moves through the knock out stages.

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