Middle East tops growth in international air traffic

International traffic growth in June was led by Abu Dhabi, Muscat, Beirut, Dubai, Kuwait and Sharjah, according to Airports Council International.

Global traffic in June 2009 was down by five per cent compared to June 2008. Although markedly lower than June 2008, this is a clear improvement over the eight per cent slump recorded in May, according to Airports Council International.

Middle East international traffic rose by four per cent for the semester, with the added boost of strong performance in June (+6.8 per cent). Largest first semester growth was reported by Beirut (29 per cent), which is seeing a revival of tourism and trade boosting its economy.

Asia Pacific airports reported positive domestic freight traffic growth (+3.6 per cent) and Middle Eastern airports led in the international results category (+1.9 per cent).

For freight results, traffic was down worldwide by 13.5 per cent. Although still starkly lower than June 2008, the gap with the previous year's growth has narrowed when compared to performance over the first six months, which was down on average by 18.8 per cent, said the report.

Overall results for the first six months of 2009 remain well below results for the same quarters in 2008 – when air travel and cargo services were climbing.

But at the same time, airports see the declining passenger growth curve is softening.

Even the sharp decline in freight traffic is stabilising.

Andreas Schimm, ACI Director Economics, said: "In all six regions, the worldwide traffic growth percentages in June are less negative than the results for the first half of the year, which is a positive sign of improvement and a possible indicator that the beginnings of a durable turnaround are in the making.

"But persistent negative factors, including ongoing economic uncertainty, tight financial markets, concerns about a global health threat, and geopolitical disruption in some nations, are likely to restrain the prospects of a rebound.

"In May, airports saw how quickly the H1N1 virus undercut demand with lingering effects in June, and as always the industry remains vigilant yet vulnerable when it comes to external factors that impact our business. As a result, it is unlikely that we will recover the flat growth rate before the fourth quarter of the year."

The Latin America-Caribbean market has been the hardest hit by the H1N1 virus, with international traffic down -14.9 per cent for June. The drop in Mexico's traffic pulled down the overall regional rate for the first half of the year (-10.6 per cent), negating robust growth registered at airports across Brazil in June.

The fear of the virus' spread was also a determining factor in poor international traffic results in the Asia Pacific markets (-11.7 per cent) and in North America (-8.7 per cent).

Although down markedly on international, Asia Pacific domestic traffic rose by a solid 3.9 per cent for the first six months, profiting from a strong domestic increase of 7.2 per cent in June. Of the 21 airports that grew more than five per cent in the first half of the year, nine are in China, and they report growth mainly in domestic traffic.

Results for the month of June remain mixed.

Overall, there were few bright spots and without strong growth in China, the picture would look far less positive. International traffic growth lags behind, which could be a worrying sign for the key travel months July and August.

All large airports in the Middle East grew with exception of Tel Aviv and Bahrain.

In North America only one US airport, Charlotte, reported positive growth in June (+0.2 per cent), and domestic traffic was down by 6.1 per cent. In Europe (-9 per cent domestic; -7 per cent international), all airports remain negative except for Stockholm (rise in domestic), Zurich and Rome (also domestic).

In addition to China in the Asia Pacific region, Jakarta and Manila had strong results, again driven by domestic demand; in contrast both Hong Kong and Japan report severe drops linked to the H1N1 virus.

In Africa, key tourism markets (South Africa and Egypt) showed significant improvement relative to the year-to-date results.

The negative freight trend seen since early this year continues to ease.



Drop in cargo and passenger number

Airlines carried 16.5 per cent less cargo and 7.2 per cent fewer people in June than the same month a year ago, with no sign yet of the global recession lifting, said the International Air Transport Association (Iata)

In its latest monthly reading of cross-border traffic, Iata said it could take years for air freight – a leading indicator of the health of world trade – to return to 2008 levels.

"These are extremely challenging times for airlines. There are no signs of an early economic recovery," said Iata, warning that continued weakness could spell trouble for carriers.

"Airlines are seeing international revenue falls of up to 30 percent at the start of the busy June-August period when airlines traditionally make their money. The outlook remains bleak," said Iata Director-General Giovanni Bisignani.

Iata has estimated airlines will lose $9 billion (Dh33bn) in 2009 after shedding $8.5bn in 2008, when high oil prices hit profits amd then the global credit and financial crisis slashed demand for business and leisure air travel.

The Geneva-based body, which represents 230 carriers including United Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Emirates and British Airways, said there were further risks in 2009 from rising oil prices and fears of the H1N1 pandemic flu that could further suppress passenger demand.

Air cargo traffic has fallen for 13 consecutive months on a year-on-year basis, reflecting both fewer shipments of goods for sale and the reliance of some exporters on more ocean transport during the recession, which has weakened consumer demand.
(Agencies)

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