Weekly forecast: Gold awaits more bank direction – and so should you

Commodity prices have moved in line with overall risk appetite this week, as the Eurozone crisis, earnings releases from the US and the FOMC meeting dominate sentiment.

The gold price has traded sideways as we wait for more direction from global central banks in the coming days.

Interestingly, gold has moved closely with European stock markets, so we expect the yellow metal to remain vulnerable to Eurozone sovereign risks. $1,614.70 – the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku cloud - remains a key support level.

A weekly close below here would be the start of a technical downtrend and could signal more losses.

The oil price has to try to balance the prospect that major central banks won’t be adding more liquidity to the markets anytime soon, for example the ECB and the FOMC, with signs that economic growth in the US and China – the largest consumers of oil and other commodities in the world – are showing signs of weakness.

Weak growth without the prospect of more stimuli by global central banks could mean lower commodity prices especially for oil and copper.

The copper price is very sensitive to the global economic cycle.

It had been trending lower; however, it has recently had a consolidation phase and managed to claw back some of its losses.
But in the absence of a sustained economic recovery in the US or a pick-up in growth in China the copper price looks vulnerable.

The writer is Emea Research Director at FOREX.com

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