Majority for Scotland’s independence: Emirates 24|7 poll

Majority of the people have voted for Scotland become an independent nation in a poll undertaken by Emirates 24|7.

At 10.30 am, 57 per cent of people in our poll voted for Scotland’s independence, 31 per cent said Scots should remain with the UK, while 12 per cent say it does not matter.

Voters will have to answer “Yes” or “No” to the referendum question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

With 4,285,323 people – 97 per cent of the electorate - registered to vote, a historically high turnout is expected, BBC reported.

Votes will be cast at 2,608 polling places across the country until 22:00 on Thursday. The result is expected early on Friday morning.

For the real estate market, a “yes” vote could wipe out the hard-won gains of the recent housing market recovery in Scotland, says Zoopla, a house price website.

Over the last two years Scottish house prices have grown on average by 8.3 per cent (Dh82,243, £13,728) with the average Scottish home value now standing at £177,599.

Property pricing is a function of demand and supply and with the recent announcements by a number of large businesses and employers in Scotland of their intent to move south of the border following the referendum, a “Yes” vote could increase supply of available properties while negatively impacting demand due to worker migration and result in a sharp fall in house prices.

Further uncertainties following a “Yes” vote surrounding tax, currency and interest rates are also likely to impact negatively on house prices in Scotland.

Mortgages could become harder to obtain with a more limited choice of lenders and higher interest rates could result. Homeowners could be earning wages in a new currency, but stuck with mortgages in sterling would leave them exposed to currency fluctuations, struggling to pay their mortgage and in negative equity.

Despite the gains of the past couple of years, Scottish house prices still remain 2.2 per cent below their peak reached in August 2008. The data suggests there could be further to run in the Scottish house price recovery, reflecting the wider economy, which has been improving healthily in recent months. However, if the economic impact on Scotland is as severe as some recent market commentary has suggested, a “Yes” vote could potentially create a market shock on a par with the recent financial crisis when house prices in Scotland fell by 17.5 per cent, which would wipe over £31,000 off the value of the average Scottish home and £85 billion off the value of the total housing stock in Scotland.

Uncertainty is never good for markets. It is possible that after all the efforts to create a sustainable recovery a “Yes” vote could reverse the recent gains and dampen future house price growth for Scottish homeowners. A “No” vote would remove uncertainty from the market and likely allow the recovery to continue.

“While the impact of the referendum on the Scottish and wider UK economy long-term is hard to predict and there are opposing views, a ‘Yes’ vote would almost certainly have a detrimental effect on Scottish house prices in the short to medium term,” Lawrence Hall of Zoopla said.

“The uncertainties on employment, tax, currency, EU membership and interest rates will all play their part and if big business does head south with a ‘Yes’ vote Scotland will lose a significant piece of their service economy with nothing to replace it, leading to a greater supply and reduced demand for housing and a resultant drop in house prices.”

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