President Barack Obama is expected to call Wednesday for a major withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, with roughly 10,000 coming home to the U.S. in less than a year, at a time when the public is become increasingly war-weary.
The phased drawdown is likely to start with 5,000 troops recalled this summer and an additional 5,000 by winter or spring 2012, according to a senior U.S. defense official. Obama is also weighing a timetable for bringing home the 20,000 other troops he ordered to Afghanistan as part of his December 2009 decision to send reinforcements to reverse the Taliban's battlefield momentum.
The withdrawals would put the U.S. on a path toward giving Afghans control of their security by 2014 and ultimately shifting the U.S. military from a combat role to a mission focused on training and supporting Afghan forces.
Obama is to address the nation from the White House at 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday (0000 GMT).
The president reached his decision a week after receiving a range of options from Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan. Obama informed his senior national security advisers, including outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, of his plans during a White House meeting on Tuesday.
"The president is commander-in-chief," said spokesman Jay Carney. "He is in charge of this process, and he makes the decision."
The Obama administration has said its goal in continuing the Afghan war, now in its 10th year, is to blunt the Taliban insurgency and dismantle and defeat al-Qaida, the terror network that used Afghanistan as a training ground for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. As of Tuesday, at least 1,522 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan as a result of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, according to an Associated Press count.
Roughly 100,000 U.S. troops are in the country, three times as many as when Obama took office. Even by drawing down the 30,000 surge forces, there will still be great uncertainty about how long the remaining 70,000 troops would stay there, although the U.S. and its allies have set Dec. 31, 2014, as a target date for ending the combat mission in Afghanistan.
A reduction this year totaling 10,000 troops would be the rough equivalent of two brigades, which are the main building blocks of an Army division. It's not clear whether Obama's decision would require the Pentagon to pull out two full brigades or, instead, a collection of smaller combat and support units with an equivalent number of troops.
If Obama were to leave the bulk of the 30,000 surge contingent in Afghanistan through 2012, he would be giving the military another fighting season — in addition to the one now under way to further damage Taliban forces before a larger withdrawal got started. It also would buy more time for the Afghan army and police to grow in numbers and capability.
Under that scenario, the emphasis in U.S.-led military operations is likely to shift away from troop-intensive counterinsurgency operations toward more narrowly focused counterterrorism operations, which focus on capturing and killing insurgents.
Afghan security forces and judicial institutions are expected to take up many aspects of the counterinsurgency fight by establishing the rule of law and respect for government institutions, U.S. officials in Afghanistan said Tuesday.
In recent speeches, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has criticized American forces, suggesting his ally is in danger of becoming an occupying force. He has even threatened action against international forces that conduct air strikes and has accused allies of undermining and corrupting his government.
Yet there are concerns in his country about the withdrawals. Some of the areas slated to transition to Afghan control have been struck by attacks in recent weeks despite assertions by Karzai that peace talks have started between the U.S., his Afghan government and Taliban emissaries. Publicly, the Taliban say there will be no negotiations until foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
The transition to full Afghan control will begin in earnest on July 20 in five provincial capital cities and two provinces.
The provincial capitals identified for transition are Lashkar Gah in Helmand province, plus capitals from provinces in the west, east and north and most of Kabul, the nation's capital. The largely peaceful northern provinces of Bamyan and Panjshir will also start to transition to Afghan control.
Some U.S. military commanders have favored a more gradual reduction in troops than Obama is expected to announce Wednesday night, arguing that too fast a withdrawal could undermine the fragile security gains.
But other advisers have backed a more significant withdrawal that starts in July and proceeds steadily through the following months.
That camp believes the slow yet steady improvements in security, combined with the death of Osama bin Laden and U.S. success in dismantling much of the al-Qaida network in the country, give the president an opportunity to make larger reductions this year.
Obama has previously said he favors a "significant" withdrawal beginning in July, his self-imposed deadline for starting to bring U.S. troops home. Aides, however, have never quantified that statement.
Pressure for a substantial withdrawal has been mounting from the public and Congress. Even Gates, who has said he favored a "modest" withdrawal, said Tuesday that Obama's decision needed to incorporate domestic concerns about the war.
"It goes without saying that there are a lot of reservations in the Congress about the war in Afghanistan and our level of commitment. There are concerns among the American people who are tired of a decade of war," Gates said during a news conference at the State Department Tuesday.
According to an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 80 percent of Americans say they approve of Obama's decision to begin withdrawal of combat troops in July and end U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan by 2014. Just 15 percent disapprove.
On Capitol Hill, even the more conservative members of his Democratic party, such as Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are pressing for significant cuts and a shift in mission.
"The question the president faces we all face is quite simple: Will we choose to rebuild America or Afghanistan? In light of our nation's fiscal peril, we cannot do both," Manchin said Tuesday.
That drew a harsh rebuke from Arizona Sen. John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate, who said Manchin's comments "characterize the isolationist withdrawal, lack of knowledge of history attitude that seems to be on the rise in America."
"In case the senator from West Virginia forgot it or never knew it, we withdrew from Afghanistan one time. We withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban came, eventually followed by al-Qaida followed by attacks on the United States of America," McCain said.
Michigan Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that improved conditions in Afghanistan would permit Obama to withdraw at least 15,000 troops by the end of the year.
Obama aides have sidestepped questions about what role the cost of the Afghan war played in Obama's decision, saying only that the president was focused on meeting the goal of transferring security by 2014.
Following the announcement on the drawdown, Obama will visit troops Thursday at Fort Drum, the upstate New York Army post that is home to the 10th Mountain Division, one of the most frequently deployed divisions to Afghanistan.