Gold heads for weekly gain as weak US jobs data lowers rate-hike bets

Traders now see about a 54% chance ⁠of a rate increase in September, down from 66% before the data

By Reuters Published: 2026-07-03T13:09:00+04:00 2 min read
Gold bangles are displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India. (Reuters)
Gold bangles are displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India. (Reuters)

Gold rose on Friday and was set for a weekly gain after four straight weeks of declines, as weaker U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase.

Spot gold was ⁠up 1.5% at $4,184.75 per ounce by 0835 GMT, after hitting its highest since June 23. Bullion held above the 21-day moving average and was up 2.4% for the week so far.

U.S. gold ‌futures for August delivery gained 1.73% to $4,197.20.

Gold's rise was driven by the steep slowdown in U.S. hiring last month and the immediate price ‌reaction appears warranted for the time being as markets pare ‌bets for a Fed rate hike in September, said Han ‌Tan, chief market analyst at ‌Bybit.

Data showed on Thursday U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 last month, below the 110,000 expected by economists ‌in a Reuters poll.

Traders now see about a 54% chance ⁠of a rate increase in September, down from 66% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of ⁠holding non-yielding assets like ⁠gold.

The U.S. dollar was on track for its biggest weekly loss since April, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.

World ⁠Gold Council data on Thursday showed central banks added a net 41 metric tons of gold to reserves in May.

Central banks are still expected to remain a demand pillar for spot prices over the longer term, even though some have been selling their ‌holdings recently to defend currencies, said Tan.

Meanwhile, gold demand in India eased this week as prices rebounded, while buying interest in China improved slightly.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.8% to $62.7 per ounce, platinum gained 2.9% to $1,662.66, and palladium climbed 1.2% to $1,280.75. All three metals were on track for weekly gains.