IMF forecasts UAE economy to grow 7.7% in 2027, one of the highest rates among regional energy exporters

Dubai: The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the UAE continues to consolidate its position as one of the leading economies benefiting from global transformations, supported by the strength of its non-oil sector and its position as a centre for trade, investment and technology, at a time when the global economy is facing increasing challenges related to geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. The report predicted that the UAE economy would grow by 7.7% in 2027, one of the highest growth rates among energy-exporting economies in the region, supported by a return to activity in energy markets, continued strength of non-oil sectors, and benefiting from the global boom related to artificial intelligence and the reshaping of global trade and investment chains. The report maintained the UAE’s current account at positive levels of 4.8% of GDP in 2026 and 7.8% in 2027. The report confirmed that the UAE stands out among the economies benefiting from the rise in global demand related to artificial intelligence and technology, in addition to benefiting from its position as a global trade and logistics hub and from improved trade conditions for energy-exporting countries outside conflict zones. The report explained that the economies best positioned to benefit from the current transformations are those that combine energy security, readiness for artificial intelligence technologies, and economic diversification, noting that the UAE is among the countries poised to benefit from these changes thanks to its investments in technology, infrastructure, and energy, and its pivotal position in global trade. The report data also showed that the UAE is one of the economies most closely linked to the global trade cycle related to artificial intelligence, as the Fund included it among the economies benefiting from investment and trade flows in advanced technologies and new value chains being formed globally. In the Fund’s view, the UAE’s continued promotion of investments in technology, energy and infrastructure, along with maintaining financial stability and the ability to attract foreign investment, puts it in a prime position to benefit from the next phase of growth expected to take place in the region and the world starting in 2027. Regional impact At the regional level, the IMF expects the Middle East and Central Asia economy to contract by 0.3% in 2026 before growth rebounds to 6.3% in 2027, while oil-exporting economies are expected to achieve strong growth of 7.4% in 2027 after declining this year. The Middle East and North Africa region's economy is expected to grow by 7% in 2027 after contracting by 2% in 2026. The region recorded growth of 3.3% in 2025. Global economy Conversely, the IMF warned of continuing risks to the global economy, maintaining its forecast for global economic growth at 3.1% in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027, while expecting the global inflation rate to rise to 4.7% this year before declining to 4.1% next year. The IMF projected that the headline global inflation rate would rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, before falling back to 4.1% in 2027. Higher energy and food prices were identified as the two main drivers behind this temporary rise. The US economy, among the major economies, is expected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, the same rate projected for 2025. China's economic growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, compared to 5% in 2025. India's economy is expected to grow by 7% in both 2026 and 2027, down from a projected 7.8% in 2025. The IMF noted that economic activity in the first half of 2026 was better than expected, despite the ongoing Iran war and tensions stemming from international trade tensions.