UAE El Niño warning 2026: Heavier rain, storms and above-average temperatures until April 2027

Dubai: As we head into October, the National Centre of Meteorology is cautioning residents about the impact of El Niño in the UAE – expect near to above-average temperatures and precipitation, and significant weather activities from October 2026 to February 2027. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to become unusually warm. It can cause rainfall patterns to change around the globe, causing heavy rain in some regions, and severe droughts in others. This year, El Niño will be “very strong, potentially stronger than the 2024 event,” predicts Dr Mohamed Al Ebri, director of the meteorology department at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM). In 2024, El Niño triggered droughts in parts of South Africa, Indonesia, Australia and South Asia, hurting crop yields, while bringing torrential rainfall and floods to parts of eastern Africa and South America. El Niño, combined with greenhouse gas emissions, also caused global temperatures to reach record highs in 2024, according to the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). El Niño’s impact in the UAE: More rainstorms So, what can we expect from the weather pattern this year? Dr Al Ebri said: “For the UAE, this could increase the chances of periods of heavy rainfall and severe weather, particularly during the winter and extending into spring [next year]. However, a strong El Niño does not automatically mean severe weather every time. El Niño creates a more favourable large-scale climate pattern, but we still need the right weather systems to pass over the UAE.” He explained that the passage of an upper-level trough or low-pressure system – which is when there is an elongated area of low pressure and cold air located about 5 to 10km above ground – combined with sufficient moisture and atmospheric instability, is what usually triggers heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. The probability of such storms happening later this year is high, because of El Niño’s impact. Dr Al Ebri said: “We can expect an increased potential for significant rainfall events, but the timing and severity of individual events will depend on the actual weather systems developing over the region.” How long will El Niño last? The El Niño weather pattern is expected to continue until around February 2027. Dr Al Ebri cautioned: “However, its influence on the weather pattern over the UAE may continue beyond that period. We could still see an impact during March and potentially into April 2027, particularly because this is part of the UAE’s main period for significant rainfall events. Therefore, the period from winter 2026 through April 2027 will require close monitoring.” He called for action – for “preparedness and readiness” before El Nino arrives in earnest. Dr Al Ebri said: “For government authorities, this is the time to review emergency plans, drainage and flood management systems, infrastructure readiness, and coordination between relevant agencies. Continuous monitoring of the regional and global weather patterns will also be important so that early warnings can be issued when conditions become favourable for severe weather.” Residents, too, can ensure they stay well-informed and aware of potential weather events. Dr Al Ebri advised: “There is no reason for alarm, but there is a reason to be prepared. Residents should follow official weather warnings, particularly during periods when heavy rainfall or thunderstorms are forecast and avoid flooded roads, wadis and low areas.”