What we know and don’t know about the emerging deal to end the Iran war

Cairo: A deal appears to be emerging between the United States and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that it had been “largely negotiated”. It is not clear when or how the deal might be finalised, or when its various parts will take effect. Trump spoke after calls with allies in the Middle East, including a separate call with Israel. Details come from two regional officials and a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations. Here is what we know and don’t know: In the 12 weeks since the US and Israel launched the war with attacks on Iran that killed senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran has insisted that any deal focus on ending the fighting on all fronts. That includes Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group has been fighting Israel since two days into the war. A fragile ceasefire has held since 7 April. An end to the war would ease concerns across a region. It would allow global shipping, including an estimated 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, to begin flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. It would also enable the rebuilding of energy and other infrastructure in the region. Both regional officials said the draft deal includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as a commitment not to interfere in the domestic affairs of countries in the region, including Iran. This is a critical reference to Iran’s support for proxy groups, which include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza, and Shiite armed groups in Iraq. The US wants Israel to have a free hand to respond to what it views as threats in Lebanon, while Iran rejects this, one regional official said. The US official said the deal would guarantee Israel’s right to act against imminent threats in self-defence. Iran’s nuclear programme, missile programme and support for armed proxies were the stated reasons for the US and Israel attacking Iran. However, Tehran’s retaliatory grip on the Strait of Hormuz quickly became a top global concern, as hundreds of ships carrying oil, natural gas, fertiliser and other supplies were stranded. Under the emerging agreement, the strait would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending the blockade of Iran’s ports, which it launched on 17 April, the regional officials said. The blockade has limited Iran’s ability to export oil and bring in much-needed revenue for its struggling economy. The US would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers, said one of the officials who has been briefed on the negotiations. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s billions of dollars in frozen funds would be negotiated during a 60-day period, the official said. Iran’s nuclear programme, and international concerns over its possible pursuit of a nuclear weapon, underpin all tensions, and the US and Israel have considered highly complex military operations to eliminate its highly enriched uranium. Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up that stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the regional officials. One official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said how Iran would relinquish it would be subject to further talks over the 60-day period. Some would likely be diluted, and the rest transferred to a third country, potentially Russia. Russia has offered to take it. A US official confirmed the 60-day period and said that if Iran does not give up its stockpile, there will be no sanctions relief. Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran says it has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology while insisting its programme is peaceful. On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV they were ready “to assure the world that we are not pursuing a nuclear weapon”. Trump said on social media on Sunday that “our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a nuclear weapon or bomb.” Other issues have not been mentioned in descriptions of the emerging deal, including the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment. Another is Iran’s missile programme, which Israel in particular has sought to dismantle. And while the United States and Israel entered the war with stated ambitions of encouraging Iranians to rise up against their government after nationwide protests earlier in the year, any discussion of leadership change in Tehran appears to be off the table. As for Iran’s previously stated aims during negotiations, there is no mention of any withdrawal of US forces from the region, or of reparations for the damage caused by the war.