Trump tightens grip on Republican Party ahead of midterms

Washington: President Donald Trump is on a winning streak in Republican primaries, most recently endorsing Ken Paxton ahead of his Tuesday runoff victory over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas. But Trump’s tightening grip on his party could make it harder to win in the November midterms, when Republicans face a broader electorate that has soured on the president’s second term and the economy. The risk is compounded, Republican operatives say, by how cavalier the billionaire president has been in addressing Americans’ financial worries, which have been exacerbated by Trump’s trade rollercoaster and his ongoing war against Iran. Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, acknowledged the president’s approach is making things harder for his party. “It’s going to be a tough fall unless things dramatically change,” Urban said. He warned that Trump cannot afford a haphazard exit from the war with Iran to resolve a conflict that has created a chokehold on global oil supplies and driven petrol prices higher for Americans. “I think the president wants to help,” he said, but “you do not want to give the Iranians a win just because of the midterms.” Not only are prices higher after Trump’s tariffs and his Iran war, but the president has repeatedly described affordability concerns as a “hoax”. Trump suggested that increases in petrol prices — up more than 50% in the US since Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran — amount to “peanuts”. He said he does not consider Americans’ personal finances “even a little bit” when weighing options in Iran, insisting that preventing the country from obtaining nuclear weapons is his only priority. All of that comes as Trump presses Congress to spend $1 billion on his White House ballroom project and allocate $1.8 billion to pay restitution to people who believe they were prosecuted for political purposes — potentially including those who violently attacked the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. It is a cascade that Republicans in every battleground House district, Senate election or statewide contest will have to navigate in the autumn. “You keep the House and Senate by having a message, by dealing with the issues voters are clearly complaining about,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic. “The administration has utterly failed to do this.” It has been more than two weeks since the Republican National Committee distributed talking points to surrogates that mention the economy, according to messaging documents reviewed by The Associated Press. The only talking points sent out last week focused on defending Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponisation fund”. “Democrats and the fake-news media are deliberately ignoring the fact that this fund is not limited to Republicans or Trump supporters,” said the message on 23 May. Two weeks earlier, the RNC encouraged surrogates to praise the president and his party for “delivering lower costs”. The messaging ignored the rising cost of petrol but noted that the price of eggs, school supplies and butter was down significantly over last year. “President Trump promised to lower prices, and he is doing just that,” the talking points said. Republicans began Trump’s second presidency with a 220–215 advantage in the House. They have boosted their chances of holding the majority by redrawing congressional maps in several Republican-run states. However, Democrats remain confident they can flip enough seats to reclaim a majority. Republicans have a more significant 53–47 advantage in the Senate. However, leaders of both parties agree that control of the chamber is in play. Some Republicans blame Trump for backing candidates like Paxton, who has faced years of scandals and could prove more vulnerable in a race against Democratic nominee James Talarico in the autumn. Viet Shelton, a spokesman for House Democrats’ campaign committee, said Trump’s redistricting push shows that he understands his party’s challenges. “They’ve given up on trying to win over voters fairly, so they’re resorting to rigging the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression,” Shelton said. Democratic advisers said Trump’s struggles have shifted the dynamics in multiple races. Their list of Republican-held House targets now includes many districts that Trump carried by double digits. In special elections and off-year elections since Trump’s second inauguration, Democrats have consistently outperformed their 2024 results. Voters can expect to see clips of Trump’s comments on the economy featured in Democratic advertising this autumn. However, party operatives said the broader strategy is to acknowledge the president’s appeal as a populist but argue that he and his Republican loyalists have failed to deliver. In US House districts in Iowa, for example, that means emphasising how tariffs have affected the farm economy and how the Iran war has increased the prices of diesel fuel and fertiliser. In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, that means highlighting how Trump’s im