How Trump and Republicans lost the 2026 midterm elections, according to The AP Voter Poll

WASHINGTON: After more than a decade with Donald Trump at the centre of US politics, most voters appear exhausted and exasperated by him, according to the AP Voter Poll, a survey of midterm voters across all 50 states. The president’s failure to deliver on key promises, particularly his pledge to tame inflation, weighed heavily on his fellow Republicans in Tuesday’s House and Senate elections. The polling indicates that many voters believed Trump was more focused on his own fortune and lifestyle than on their needs. Trump also backed candidates with significant vulnerabilities, worsening Republican difficulties in an already challenging election year. In an interview with Fox News Channel on Tuesday evening, he said Democrats had “fought hard” and suggested the Republican base disliked some of the candidates he had endorsed. But the results also carry a warning for Democrats. Many voters remain dissatisfied with the party, and although Democrats hold an advantage on important issues including the economy, that edge is relatively narrow. About seven in 10 voters said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the president. Inflation hurt Republicans Republican candidates could not escape voters’ frustration over inflation. Higher costs were visible in grocery bills, petrol prices, vehicle repairs and utility bills, and the impact extended into traditionally Republican states such as Texas. About two in 10 Texas voters said inflation had caused “severe” hardship for them and their families, and roughly three-quarters of that group backed Democrat James Talarico for the Senate. About six in 10 reported “moderate” hardship, with Talarico also winning a majority of those voters. The pattern was repeated across the country. Voters who were “very concerned” about everyday costs, including groceries, healthcare and petrol, overwhelmingly backed Democratic candidates in their local House races. Economic frustration was not limited to inflation itself. Voters also blamed Trump for his tariffs, the war in Iran and his failure to fulfil his campaign pledge to bring prices down. About two-thirds said his policies had made the economy worse, and roughly eight in 10 of those voters supported Democratic House candidates. Corruption and Trump’s priorities concerned voters More than half of voters nationally said government corruption was “crucial” to their congressional vote, slightly more than the share who said the cost of living was crucial. Concerns about Trump’s priorities also featured prominently. About two-thirds of voters said he did not have the right priorities, and an overwhelming majority of those voters supported Democratic House candidates. For much of the previous two years, Trump had pursued an assertive approach to presidential power while the Republican-controlled House and Senate offered little resistance. Michelle Hurtado reacts during the Texas Democrats Watch Party at the Hyatt Recency in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. AP Voters signalled that they wanted greater congressional oversight. About seven in 10 said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency, including about four in 10 Republicans. The national desire for a stronger congressional check is also reflected in the AP Voter Poll coverage. Democrats won, but their party remains unpopular with many voters The Democratic victories did not amount to an unequivocal endorsement of the party. On the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes and immigration, roughly two in 10 voters said neither party was better equipped to deal with the issue. An even larger share said neither party was better positioned to address government corruption or artificial intelligence. Those sceptical voters generally broke towards Democratic candidates. Only about half of voters had a “somewhat” or “strongly” favourable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with roughly four in 10 who viewed the Republican Party positively. About two in 10 people who voted for Democratic candidates nevertheless had an unfavourable opinion of the party. Instead, voters in several important races appeared to favour Democratic candidates because they wanted change. In Maine, for example, voters who placed the greatest importance on having a candidate with “the right experience” largely favoured Republican incumbent Susan Collins. But more voters prioritised bringing about “needed change”, and they favoured Democrat Troy Jackson. Trump-backed candidates struggled Trump endorsed Republican candidates who struggled to win over voters, putting previously safe Republican territory at risk. In South Carolina, about six in 10 voters in the Senate race said Republican Darline Graham lacked the experience needed to serve in the chamber. In Texas, Trump backed state Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. Paxton entered the general election carrying significant political baggage, and