Middle powers turn to strategic autonomy as global rivalries intensify

Abu Dhabi: As traditional security guarantees come under pressure and geopolitical rivalries intensify, middle powers are increasingly turning to strategic autonomy, diversified partnerships and regional cooperation to navigate a rapidly changing global order. The role of these countries in strengthening regional security and reducing the risks created by competition between major powers was discussed during the closing session of the third edition of Hili Forum 2026, titled 'Role of Middle Powers in a Ruptured'. Speakers highlighted the importance of diplomacy, cross-border economic integration and technological resilience as countries seek to protect themselves from geopolitical shocks while avoiding becoming drawn into conflicts between larger powers. Avoiding other countries’ wars Vuk Jeremić, former foreign minister of Serbia, said developments over the past few months of 2026 had demonstrated that some partners could be relied upon more than others and that security guarantees previously taken for granted did not necessarily function in the same way under new geopolitical and technological conditions. “I think it is vital for any region in the world, including this region, to make achieving peace an absolute and top priority,” Jeremić said. Vuk Jeremić, former foreign minister of Serbia He acknowledged that this was particularly difficult when peace was challenged by a unilateral war in which a country was not a participant but ultimately found itself becoming a victim. As countries seek to build strategic autonomy while remaining part of an interconnected global system, Jeremić said one of their first priorities should be to avoid becoming involved in other countries’ wars. “Do not be part of other people’s wars,” he said, adding that countries, particularly those that are not major powers, should seek to maintain neutrality towards unilateral actions during what he described as the coming decades of geopolitical stagnation. Building resilience also requires countries to address domestic vulnerabilities, expand their networks of friendships and cooperation, and develop their technological capabilities, he said. Jeremić stressed the importance of maintaining good relations with neighbouring countries, acknowledging that this could be particularly challenging in regions such as the Balkans and the Middle East. He said improving and repairing relations with neighbours, ideally all of them but “one at a time”, should be part of efforts to prepare for future challenges. Can middle powers build their own partnerships? Discussing whether middle powers can establish sustainable smaller-scale partnerships without the involvement of major powers, Jeremić said periods of geopolitical stagnation often put both peace and multilateral international organisations under pressure. Institutions built over decades may struggle when their structures no longer reflect the changing distribution of global power, he said. Jeremić outlined three possible approaches. The first is to reform existing international organisations so they better reflect current realities and are better equipped to address contemporary challenges. The second is to build new organisations or deepen engagement with alternative groupings that may not be global in scope but bring together countries with similar interests. The third, if other avenues fail, is unilateral action. However, he cautioned that unilateral moves do not always go according to plan, even for the world’s most powerful countries. Jeremić said all three approaches were already taking place simultaneously. Smaller countries and middle powers should continue efforts to reform international institutions and should not abandon organisations such as the United Nations simply because they currently appear ineffective, he said. At the same time, countries are building new organisations and strengthening alternative arrangements, including new security structures in the region. Technology and strategic autonomy Jeremić, who previously served at the United Nations and ran for UN secretary-general in 2016, also highlighted technology as an increasingly important component of strategic autonomy. Referring to the concept discussed by Dr Anwar Gargash at the forum a day earlier, he said middle and smaller powers should avoid becoming locked into exclusive technological relationships, particularly in technologies linked to the future of sustainable energy. Avoiding dependence on a single side or partner, he said, should form part of how countries build strategic autonomy, particularly in the technology sector. ‘Responsible middle power’ Zhandos Shaimardanov, Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, said his country’s approach was centred on the concept of being a “responsible middle power”. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has described the country as a responsible middle power, arguing that such states can serve as i