UAE weather forecast: 96% chance El Niño will last until March, but heavy rain isn’t guaranteed, says NCM

Dubai: El Niño is growing stronger, as we head into November – but what does this mean for the UAE? The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) shared an educational video on the X platform, clarifying El Nino’s impact on UAE’s weather patterns, and whether it means we can expect more rain in the region. El Niño and UAE rain A spokesperson from the NCM stated: “In the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, El Niño may indirectly affect wind patterns and the tracks of low-pressure systems, and therefore the chances of rainfall. According to the National Centre of Meteorology, the probability that El Niño persists from November 2026 to March 2027 is about 96%, with its effects possibly extending into April. The Centre’s seasonal outlook also indicates that temperatures and rainfall in the UAE may be near or above normal during this period.” But does this mean we need to prepare for heavy rain? Not necessarily. The 96% refers to the probability that the phenomenon will persist – not the probability of rain in the UAE. NCM explained: “Rainfall and its intensity depend on available moisture, wind patterns, the position of low-pressure systems, and conditions that help air rise and clouds grow. Moisture may come from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, but wind direction and the position of weather systems decide whether it reaches our region. When the right conditions come together, the chances of rain increase – and in some cases, it can be heavy.” So, El Niño’s strength alone does not determine how much rain falls in the UAE, or how intense it is. Today’s weather: Cooler temperatures Today, the NCM forecasts fair to partly cloudy weather, with a chance of some convective cloud formation eastward and northward, associated with rainfall. This weekend, humidity will continue – although it will not be as high as it has been in the past few weeks, topping out at 70% in Dubai and 60% in Abu Dhabi – with a probability of mist formation in coastal regions. Light to moderate winds, fresh to strong at times, may cause blowing dust. Four emirates – Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, and Ras Al Khaimah – will reach a high of 36°C today, while Ajman and Umm Al Quwain, Ajman will peak at 35°C. Fujairah will remain the coolest emirate, at 32°C. Moderate sea conditions It’s a great time to head to the beach and take advantage of better weather. The NCM forecasts slight sea conditions in both eastern and western regions, with wave heights reaching up to two feet on-shore, and up to three feet off-shore in both the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Here is the complete breakdown of minimum and maximum temperatures across the Emirates today: Maximum Temp (°C) Minimum Temp (°C) Dubai 36°C 27°C Abu Dhabi 36°C 26°C Al Ain 35°C 25°C Sharjah 36°C 24°C Ajman 35°C 26°C Fujairah 32°C 26°C Ras Al Khaimah 36°C 24°C Umm Al Quwain 35°C 22°C Liwa 37°C 23°C