US Midterms 2026: Congress, Trump and the battle for power

WASHINGTON: Early voting has been underway for weeks ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, when US voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country. Held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, the midterms by definition do not involve the president. But for anyone who thinks they lack drama or importance this year, consider these two statistics: More than 57 million people had already cast their ballots as of Monday, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, well above the 46 million who voted early in the 2022 midterm elections. This election is on track to be the most expensive in US history. The nonpartisan watchdog OpenSecrets estimates a total of $11.9 billion will be spent by candidates and outside political groups. Elon Musk alone had spent about $366 million to support Republicans as of three weeks ago, according to campaign finance records. Still, midterms generally attract fewer voters than the higher-profile presidential races. More than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election, for example. Control of Congress at stake Plenty is at stake in this midterm election as Democrats try to win majority control of the US Congress. Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, where there are two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to win control. Democrats also are fighting to win the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. They must net four additional seats to get control. Twelve races, including those in conservative-leaning states like Kansas and Texas, could decide the outcome. Can midterms affect the presidency? Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress. For 2026 that means that President Donald Trump and his Republicans controlling the US Senate and House of Representatives are in perilous political positions. The midterms can be an opportunity for voters to, in effect, grade the president's performance, and possibly trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks. Midterm election results also can give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case will be in 2028. What are polls showing? Approval of Trump's performance is at a near record low of 32%, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Domestic issues like rising consumer prices are likely to have an impact on the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans. At the same time, there is evidence that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans and more of them have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump's immigration enforcement tactics. However, a landslide for the Democrats is far from assured. Republicans could benefit from continued scepticism towards Democrats, a Republican spending advantage on campaigns, and fears from moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers. Recent midterm history Recent history tells the story of the shockwaves a midterm election can produce. In the 2010 midterms, during the Democratic presidency of Barack Obama, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming US economy and weak support for Obama's landmark healthcare reform legislation. Democrats lost their majority. In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats. The Republican wave was a "shellacking," Obama lamented at the time. He subsequently faced Republican demands for significant reductions to non-defence spending. Democrats returned the favor in 2018, with Trump in the White House. They gained a net total of 40 House seats, but lost a net two Senate seats. This year's elections also have races for governors in 36 of the 50 states and voting in nearly every state for seats in state-level legislative bodies. Currently, Republicans control 55% of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8%, according to Ballotpedia. Who will be speaker? If Democrats manage to win the House, the next speaker - second in line for the presidency after the vice president - is likely to be Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York. He is currently the House Democratic leader. Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the powerful office, would be in a position to direct House committees to launch investigations into a range of controversial activities by Trump and his associates. Jeffries repeatedly has said Democrats would look into what he has called "unprecedented levels of corruption" during the Trump administration.